Wednesday, November 14, 2007

CBS News: Combat veterans suicide expose misuses statistics

CBS has an "expose" on veterans suicide....the headline blares: Suicide epidemic among veterans...suicide rate of veterans is twice that of other Americans...

The problem is that it simply is not true.

Suicide is a terrible problem, and suicides are higher in those suffering from post traumatic stress syndrome and combat fatigue...but what disturbs me is that the analysis is poorly done.
My full analysis is on BNN where you can find all the nice references,but in summary

1) they compare veteran (mainly males) suicide data (suicide rate 18-20 per 100 000 population) to the general population (suicide rate of 11)...but a better comparison would be to the suicide rate of males ( 17)
By using the general population, the low suicide rate in females (4.6) distorts the picture.

2) by not defining who is a veteran in their data, the data might include those who never were in combat, or the elderly, whose suicide rate is much higher.
If the statistics on veterans come from the VA, we might see a different problem: the VA has an extensive mental health program, using VA statistics might artificially increase the statistics, since their population would be sicker medically and psychiatrically than those veterans who never used and never needed the VA system and were lost to follow up.

3) the only combat veteran group from Iraq whose statistics they cite is veterans from 45 states from age 20 to 25, where they cite a high rate of 22-31.

The problem is that many who serve in Iraq are older than this...the average age of National Guard members in Iraq is actually 33...so why do they highlight this age group? And are the numbers high enough to be statistically valid?

We don't know, because they never bother to give us the statistical analysis.
And they don't bother to inform you of the military's suicide prevention program, nor that Bush just signed a bill to increase VA funding for suicide prevention...

This is good news, since suicide is an ongoing problem in combat veterans, and it's just too early to tell how bad the problem will be. So yes, inform the public, but stop distorting statistics to "prove" veterans are all helpless victims. The suicide statistics do not prove that they are much worse off than their stay at home brethren.

And FYI: The suicide rate in doctors is between 28 an 40....higher than that cited by CBS for the younger, most vulnerable combat veterans.

No comments: