Container ships: the Box that changed the world

See previous post about the container ship collapse that I added an update video.

I am posting this because I know only a little about shipping: My father's work was coordinating shipping of his company's product, and when I was in Liberia, I had to go out on a small vessel to evacuate patients from oil tankers etc. that had to go around Africa due to the closure of the Suez canal.

Monrovia had an artificial harbor built by the USA but it was too small to accomadate large vessels.

But my knowledge of shipping is obviously over 40 years old, and one of the reason I am posting about this is to update my knowledge which predates the the container ship revolution...

this article says that container ships began in the 1960s but didn't hit smaller countries until the late 1970s due to the cost of the sophisticated equipment and rail lines to move the merchandise.

many experts consider container shipping one of the key transport revolutions of the 20th century. The use of standardized containers saves tremendous costs, as the goods are packed only once and can be transported over long distances using various modes of transport – truck, rail, or ship. Time-consuming unpacking and repacking are no longer required...

so here is a video on how they organize putting containers on a ship:

at .

a discussion on the maritime trade is discussed here:

the Maritime History podcast hasn't posted for awhile but the older podcasts are quite interesting for anyone interested in deep history.

shutting down another port

 the port of Baltimore was shut down after a boat 'hit a bridge.

Nothing to see here, folks, just an accident.

And now a container ship had poorly stacked containers collapse, probably shutting down that port too.

more here from a shipping newsletter Freightwaves.

Operations at Pier G at the Port of Long Beach were shut down early Tuesday after dozens of containers fell into the water from a docked vessel. A total of 67 containers were floating in the water while another 70 had collapsed aboard the Portugeuse-flagged Mississippi, Coast Guard Sector Los Angeles-Long Beach said, which arrived Tuesday after departing Yantian, China on August 26.

so poorly stacked, lacking the lashings that keep them in place? Personnel incompentence in Long Beach, or personnel incompetence in China?

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

update:

Asian financial crisis redux?

my previous post was about the wonderful K drama when life gives you tangerines. The plot is about a family and much of it is about trying to make a living, starting in poverty and working their way up to a middle class existance.

One of the major subplots in the middle of the drama was the unemployment and hardships suffered by the family due to the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

that lesson should be noticed by the Yanks who are opposing the DOGE cuts and the financial problems in the USA.

..

........

  many Asians think that rich people manipulating the stock market for gain either precipitated the crisis or made it worse.

And high on the list of those manipulating the crisis was Soros.

TBSPanorama/Bloomberg:

At the combined annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in September 1997, a conflict raged over who was to blame for the nascent financial calamity, and what kind of economic model would emerge after it. The main protagonists were Mahathir Mohamad, at the zenith of his power as prime minister of Malaysia, and George Soros, the billionaire who made bold bets against the currencies of Thailand and Malaysia in the run-up to the crisis. A few years earlier, Soros had defeated the Bank of England's efforts to prop up the pound. Mahathir, for his part, had presided over high growth rates for much of his 16 years in office that were now at risk of being undone. With Thailand already subject to the strictures of an IMF-led bailout and Indonesia hurtling down the path toward one, Mahathir feared Malaysia could be next. Soros was portrayed by Mahathir and other nationalists as representing global capital, in all its fickleness — and drew scrutiny (and sometimes praise) for his ability to spot countries and assets that were starting to go awry.

Investopedia also discusses manipulation and interference that made the crisis worse.  

The Bottom Line In 1997, decades of economic policy planning that featured close relationships among government policy planners, regulators, the industries they regulated, and financial institutions came to a head when markets began putting downward pressure on Asian currencies.  

italics mine....the markets did it.  

This is like those headlines that shout a car drove into a crowd, or an AK47 killed people: as if these things were independent of human intervention.

Which is why the president of Malaysia blamed Soros:

ah, but hedge funds and Soros various funds didn't make a profit: They broke even so you are wrong, says this article. 

Except of course everyone else went broke, so breaking even is sort of winning isn't it?,,, or maybe the aim was not to get rich, but to gain power?

 

this Bangkock post article looks back and says that one result was:

With contagion, the risk of financial crisis to a country is not limited to its own vulnerabilities, but can be a result of market contagion that turns the underlying weaknesses into a crisis. This means, under globalisation, a financial crisis is no longer an isolated individual country problem but a collective problem that needs to be tackled collectively -- through an organised regional or global body whose job it is to prevent and resolve financial crises. so welcome to the New World Order.

italics mine.

So did big shots controlling the world manipulate things so that the ultimate result would be centralized control of the world economy? 

are we seeing "markets" manipulating the economies of the world again, this time in the USA under an incompetent Biden, and no one except for conspiracy sites dare to ask the question: What is really going on?

Trump knows business, and knows how to play dirty in business: so right now he is manipulating the world wide financial situation by threats of tariffs: He points out that other countries take advantage of tariffs on the US while the US is not supposed to notice. So since what is good for the goose is good for the gander, he says change or else. Drop the tariffs or else. And saying to companies: Invest in the USA.

Not popular, but a fast way to equalize things to stimulate fair trade.

But China could be the problem: They are calling in the debts from a lot of countries who they sent "AID" but actually what they did was did stuff and it was a loan to be paid back and now the loan is due. And they are threatening war against Taiwan, the Philippines, and India (and if Russia doesn't watch out, Siberia is next on the list of lost Chinese possessions).

which is why Trumpieboy calls Russia crazy for not trying to make peace.  

the kerfuffle about Greenland and Canada was actually a headsup that China was expanding their economic control of these countries so they could take over the Arctic trade routes. And this only makes sense if you know that they are also infiltrating Eastern Siberia with a lot of migrant workers. 

Well, never mind. 

I don't understand economics, but if you read history, you know that economic problems and depressions cause revolutions and wars.

The Chinese curse/blessing goes: May you live in interesting times.

 

taxing the little things

 The stuff going on in Washington is making me dizzy and on most of it I have no expertise.

Punishing Mexico and Canada with a huge tariff? Well, they started it. Fenanyl and people smuggling by the cartels who run Mexico, and the huge tariffs in Canada on American goods. That last part could hint that tariffs on the EU will come next, since they too put huge tariffs on Yankee goods.

How dare Trumpie boy push back.

But what is the smaller tariff on China about? It isn't big enough to harm them, so what's the deal.

Dilbert explains it in his podcast:

Answer: this is about taxing small packages. E commerce. Both direct sales from China to the US and also when they send parts in small packages to get around the usual taxes.

Conservative Treehouse has the details here.

Trump’s executive orders directing 25% levies on Canada and Mexico — plus a 10% duty on China — specify that the “de minimis” exemption for small packages no longer applies. Under the exemption, products below that dollar amount are able to enter the US without tariffs — a boon for China’s e-commerce retailers who ship often cheaper wares directly to consumers in the US....the impact of the change threatens to fall most squarely on China, affecting retailers including Alibaba, JD.com Inc., PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu and fashion-focused Shein. American shoppers and companies imported about $48 billion worth of shipments from the world under that loophole in the first nine months of last year, according to US Customs and Border Protection estimates.

more details from the Financial Post

translation: they are undermining Amazon.

And local businesses of course.

China dumping cheap goods on third world countries undermines local businesses, both manufacturing stuff and now the retail stores. I wonder if this works if more countries will do the same.

I mainly shop locally, except I have to buy my clothes in the used clothing outlets to find clothing to fit me.

But I see the staff here always buying cheap stuff on line and getting it delivered here. Yes, they could probably find it locally, but that would take time to find where they could get it and the prices would be higher than e commerce.

Shipping routes: can a Thailand canal help?

 China is trying to block the shipping via the West Philippine Sea.

But there is another danger spot if China gets aggressive:

Malaca Strait — and Kra Isthmus, Thailand — Wildly important:https://t.co/Gdv4AsOldM

— Michael Yon: Callsign BIG HONEY 6 (@Michael_Yon) October 6, 2024

....

Invest in the Philippines?

there is a lot of stuff going on here: we got a second mall and now we see shops and restaurants  opening (and closing) all the time. 

With the covid epidemic over more people are moving to work overseas. Alas, since I had dengue two years ago, I am essentially home bound (I kept asking the docs to check why I am so weak, and after extensive checking they smiled and pointed out that I am old. Sigh). 

 But I do see development going on: Joy working on a government project to help on the business side of the farmers coop for organic food in Bulacan (she is a trained accountant but took advanced business courses thanks to Goldman sachs 1000 women initiative a few years ago).

we are gradually mechanizing our farm here, which I have written about in previous posts. But cleaning out the irrigation canal means less irrigation water this season but more available in future years. And then there is the plan to put solar panels in our area to supplement electricity to Manila and also locally. And we already have advanced internet connectivity, not to mention Star link is starting to be available (we have two internet connections: One with Globe, the local phone company and one with Huawei. The reason? Partly a back up if the lines break.

this video is about investment in the infrastructure of the Philippines: to us it means instead of what was once a four hour drive to Manila is now two to three hours (in heavy traffic it can take up to five hours), and in the near future shorter, rail lines to replace the slow buses. We still will have to use our trucks to transport the rice to the market, but for meetings and trade fairs, we won't have to use our cars.

they are also tightening up the checking about our OFW, to make sure they aren't getting cheated or exploited. The bad news: my granddaughter has a job that she got through her school connections to teach in Thailand, but since she didn't do paperwork or have a recruiter to do that, she has to do lots of paperwork.

So far she is teaching on line so she still has the job offer, but it is a hassle.

Well, anyway my Youtube connection keeps putting up cheerful videos on how the government is working on infrastucture etc. which will allow businesses to invest here.

The good news? We have an English speaking educated and trained workforce who might prefer to work here instead of overseas. The bad news? corruption of course.

Part of this is to attract business investments from companies who were burned by China and also because Chinese wages are going up. The bad news? Our wages tend to be higher than places like Viet Nam. But if the infrastructure improves it would be cost effective

Marcos was elected because people remember how his father attracted business (ignore that his government devolved by overreacting to the Communist threat and started jailing non communist opposition).

You have to realize that things here are run by your connections: Friends and relatives. This is good, but it does make it hard for outsiders to break into the oligarchy which is mainly Chinese or old families but now includes a lot of Protestant businessmen (joy's business connections often are fellow Protestant Christians)

so the Pope's emphasis on giving to charity ignores that the saying: Give a man a fish and he eats for one day. Teach him to fish and he feeds himself.

So here are two videos (advertisements of course) on what is being done:

,,,,this video also discusses the pros and cons of tariffs and how it affects local rice growers and also discusses how the government is pushing development of infrastructure.

one thing not noted: If China goes nuts and invades Taiwan, the Philippines will be involved, not just because China is grabbing the West Philippine sea, but that this would increase China's ability to block the sealanes from the Middle East.

So will they start a war before Trumpieboy takes over and scares them into staying quiet?

And another factor about the WPS: there are extensive natural gas deposits there that China has long offered to "help' the Philippines develop (read steal them). Access to those fields could improve the economies not just of the Philippines but of Viet Nam which is another country trying to attract investments.

the war against farmers Part 2

 this is a follow up on several posts on the war on farmers, the latest one is here if you wish to read it.

World Bank launches first global framework for agri-food emissions
"to halve current agri-food emissions by 2030... by ensuring that the environmental and health costs borne by society are fully included in food prices"
So, less food, higher priceshttps://t.co/Avbazsf5FA pic.twitter.com/gyWw46Z78G

— Tess Summers 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪 (@tesssummers98) May 7, 2024

here is article behind a wall of course from the UKTelegraph: or read copy at the wayback machine link.

after lamenting the cacao bushes are in trouble (whoops there goes Cadbury), they go on to insist:

Globally, agriculture is responsible for around 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions,

That's us: Rice growing is a major source of greenhouse gas, especially if you prefer to rot weeds by flooding instead of using herbicides. Oh yes: We can either use a diesel powered handplow, or a methane emitting water buffalo to plow.

and is the biggest driver of biodiversity loss

yup. Growing food and getting rid of weeds does that. 

yup. Reminds me of hundreds of Nat Geo documentaries lamenting the loss of habitat for those beautiful wild animals.

Those dang Africans prefer to grow food and not starve, so are moving into the areas displacing those lovely wild animals that the rich Europeans and Yanks love.

Yes, I am being sarcastic: I mean, who do you lament: a dead elephant or a starving African? Don't answer quickly: because Botswana is now telling Germany to take 20 thousand elephants that are too many for the environment to support.

”It is very easy to sit in Berlin and have an opinion about our affairs in Botswana. We are paying the price for preserving these animals for the world – and even for Lemke’s party,” Masisi said. Germans should try to “live together with the animals, in the way you are trying to tell us to,” he added.

This imperialist mindset can be found in the UKT article I cited above:

“I think we’re seeing the end of the era of cheap food, because of the impact of that cheap food – not just on people’s health but the external impact, the environmental impact, the societal impact of that cheap food. We need to witness the end of cheap food and a reversal of the value of the food people are eating.”

Does this guy realize what he is saying? He is saying make food so expensive that the poor can't afford to buy it. Do you know what happens when you do this? People starve or die of disease because of malnutrition. 

yup. the poor are hungry? Let them eat cake. Sound familiar? 

the proposal is growing food in the same way that people farmed  200 years ago: when farms produced a lot less food.

Waitrose is hoping to appeal to its existing shoppers, who have both the time and money to choose a more expensive product that has a lower climate impact.

and the other folk? The average worker in Manila who lives on 9 dollars a day?

I lived in Liberia when the government allowed an increase in the price of rice. The result was a coup that eventually led to years of civil war and a lot of deaths. But hey, they are poor Africans so who cares (/sarcasm). 

But never mind: Because luckily for Africa, the Chinese are coming and they are teaching how to grow enough food to feed the population by the old fashioned way: Modern agriculture.

the dirty little secret: A lot of western NGOs opposed modern agriculture and made these government afraid of growing such food. 

Well, duh. We see this in the Philippines where our government encourages organic food and although they encourage modern hybrids they try to avoid GMO foods. 

Hey, we grow organic brown rice, and I agree it is a lot healthier. But if I had to chose between dying of hunger or facing the side effects of modern GMO food or food raised with chemicals, then guess what I would chose?

(the answer: we need both, enough cheap food for the poor but allowing organic and old fashioned ways to grow food and preserve the genes of older crops, but hey the green zealots don't seem to recognize this is possible).

So the Philippines is pushing organic growing in some areas, but has to import rice to feed the city poor, (which makes the rice importers rich) and I suspect a lot of this cheap imported rice is GMO and full of chemicals.

Guess what: GMO seeds which are being used more and more in China to feed their huge population and export to other countries

..but in Africa, thanks to the green mindset of many GMOs, some countries have avoided embracing these modern crops: Indeed, in the midst of a famine a decade ago, Zimbabwe refused to accept life saving food aid from the USA for fear it included GMO crops.

Enter China, who is heavily investing in Africa at many levels...So will China be the world's savior by helping Africa to feed their growing population by using these modern methods that are now being prohibited  by the green lobbies in the modern west? 

Mulwa said that by cooperating with China, African nations will enjoy enhanced access to technologies, innovations and research required to develop new crop varieties that can withstand climate shocks, pests and diseases. He noted that the exchange of germplasm between China and African countries will thrive under the plan to ensure local smallholder farmers' access to high-yielding crops.

Conspiracy theory of the week

 

we grow organic rice, but the dirty little secret is that if everyone did that, poor people would starve.( See SriLanka)

get rid of fossil fuel, and there goes the cheap fertilizer and diesel to run farm machinery. So go back to peasants planting rice using water buffalo? Well, first of all, even in our Catholic area, people aren't having six kids per woman any more (we are about 2.3, still growing the population, but a lot lower than 30 years ago).

But you know, whereas 20 years ago, our staff would take off to help harvest the crop, now we rent a harvester/thresher to do this: Because as the farmers get older, they can't do it anymore, and thanks to land reform, they got richer, sent their kids to school, and now their kids work elsewhere (ten percent of Filipinos work overseas).

So we recruited people from the poorer Visayas to work as tenant farmers on our land, but the land that is now owned by the farmers, well, they are trying to sell it to us, but we are limited to what we can own. So returning Filipinos will buy it, install tenant farmers, and grown rice.

or maybe, sell the land to the local corporation that is trying to buy/rent our land to put up solar panels. So in a country that imports a lot of the rice, the aim is to divert valuable rice land to solar panels? Some poorer farmers might just do that if their kids don't want the farm land.

RIght now, with irrigation, we get two crops a year: With proper irrigation and investment, we could get three crops a year. But instead of investing in food, they will put up solar panels?

Sigh.

I am anti pollution, but there is a difference between development of resources in way that limits pollution, and and stopping farming/ forestry/ mining in the name of a green Gaia goddess. 

That will only lead to hungry people in the cities, and locals mining or cutting trees anyway, but in a more dangerous way that leads to people dying in accidents and more local pollution. Ah, but laws will stop this? Nope. In many areas all it takes is a bribe for authorities to look the other way.

Sigh.

Curing the poison from the coal mines

 When I worked in Appalachia, we could see the slag heap from our house. They had planted trees in it to prevent the minimountain from collapsing, but the run off meant that the stream was red with pollution from the run off. 

Upstream, however, the stream had trout, and the mountains were full of game: Deer, pheasants, wild turkeys and at one point, a colony of beavers decided to dam the stream. After locals destroyed their dam twice, those busy beavers tried a third time, leading to a mini lake and the locals gave up. 

Much of this forest around the stream had been farms: one could find the foundations of their houses and we would find small areas with herbs and flowers that were not usually seen in the wild, including apple trees that survived after they left. 

The forest was legally state game lands, and the locals all had rifles and hunted deer. The first day of deer season was a school holiday. And often one would see the deer hanging from the rafters in the garden (and if you looked carefully, a few illegal deer might be hung up in their garage). No, deer hunting was not just a sport but a way to get meat on the table.

the dirty little secret is that this area was once farms, but the soil, you see, was not good, so like a lot of places in the mountains of the Eastern USA, the people left their un-productive farms to move west, and the forest returned.

 In one area, an Amish sect moved in and bought some of these farms, so if you went off the main road, you would find signs warning you to watch for their buggies.

But the mines allowed some of them to move to town and find work. And many of the coal miners who moved in were immigrants from Italy or Eastern Europe. 

The mines closed and opened according to the economy: 

During the Carter administration, when the Arabs made oil and gasoline hard to get, the mines had reopened. But by the time I was living there, the mines had reclosed and the men had moved to find work elsewhere: often seasonal work in construction, and so they left their families behind, since they owned houses in the town, and the housing in the affluent areas where they were doing construction was too expensive for them, and of course construction work does tend to move from place to place. 

Others worked in the local prisons. 

But a lot of the older mines had black lung or injuries and were retired. So there was a lot of alcoholism and drug use in those left behind.

Many needed narcotics for chronic pain from injuries and then started using it to get high. Hence the high percentage of illicit drug use.

The doctor's dilemma: give them pain medicine or let them suffer, or worse, know that they would buy medicine on the streets risking overdoses. 

We usually supplied narcotics to our patients with chronic pain with a contract that included drug testing and frequent visits to monitor their behavior, and hoped the FDA didn't try to pull our medical license. The problem of chronic pain that goes untreated ia one of the issues not being addressed. 

https://libquotes.com/emily-dickinson/quote/lby1l9d

So a sad area, which probably has gotten worse in the 30 years since I left that area.

But a beautiful area.

and good people.

 But some are trying to revive the land. 

and some are trying to entice jobs into the area to keep the towns alive. 

One way is making old rail lines to hiking trails: Rails to trails. 

This brings in tourism, which helps with jobs for restaurants and antique stores and hotels. And of course, in winter there is skiing.

But what about the environment?

TheNatureConservatory blog has an article about reviving the land by fixing the soil so that the natural habitat can come in. 

The article seems to be about restoring the devesation of the more modern strip mines rather than the legacy of decades of mining from underground mines that leave behind a lot of toxic slag. But it shows that the natural environment can be restored, which is a first step in reviving the area.

the first step in restoration was decompacting the soil, or what many conservationists I spoke with called “ripping it up.” The idea is to get water infiltrating the soil, to create conditions where seedlings would sprout.

Then came the tree planting. More than 6 million trees have been planted on Central Appalachian mine sites so far. But even that number is only part of the story, Shallows says. “This is about more than planting trees,” says Shallows. “It’s an impressive number. It feels good to plant trees. But we are focused on restoring whole ecosystems here. We want a healthy, functioning, diverse forest.”

 

This is good, but I am reminded of Lolo's comment: you can't eat the scenery.

But with a decent environment, other ways to revive the economy can be done, since a decent environment will entice the kids, who now leave to work elsewhere, to return home to work in hospitality, in ecology, in caregiving, and in the IT industry.

The other Arab world

 

Joy has been in Dubai at trade fairs seeking a market to sell our organic brown rice.

There are a lot of Filipinos in that area, working as nurses and caregivers but also in construction etc.

People forget that the Arab world's involvement in trade with all sorts of cultures goes back 2000 years.

recent article about trade agreements between India and the Middle East.,

The corridor, which would include India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Israel and the European Union, would help boost trade, deliver energy resources and improve digital connectivity.

Biden’s national security adviser, said the network reflected Biden’s vision for “far-reaching investments” ,,,to boost economic growth, help bring countries in the Middle East together and establish that region as a hub for economic activity instead of as a “source of challenge, conflict or crisis” as it has been in recent history.

Lots of Philippine OFW live and work there. 

Wikipedia article:

Filipinos in the United Arab Emirates are migrants or descendants of the Filipinos living in the United Arab Emirates. 679,819 Filipinos live in the UAE, of which 450,000 live in Dubai, and they form 6.1% of the whole UAE population, and they form 21.3% of the population of Dubai.

The Pope has been working with their leaders to encourage peace between the west and the Islamic world.

The document was signed in 2019 by Pope Francis and Dr Ahmed Al Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Al Azhar, during the pontiff's visit to the UAE. It calls for the reconciliation of people of all faiths and goodwill in service of universal peace. The Abrahamic Family House, a complex of a mosque, synagogue and church that opened in Abu Dhabi this year, aims to be the physical manifestation of the document.

the Abraham accords is also trying to encourage policies of peace and trade. 

But since it was signed under Trumpieboy, who is hated by the western press, it has gotten little publicity. However, Biden has supported this policy which is a good sign.

AlJ, who is very pro Palestinian, has this article from Sept 2023 discusses how the UAE links with Israel have improved since the Abraham accords, but also insists that Palestine is one thorn in this optimistic plan. 

One problem: In my opinion the present terrorist attacks against Israel is about Iran trying to stop the Abraham accords. So it is not just bitter Palestinians being manipulated to hate by outside powers. Hamas is essentially an Iranian proxy, and the war in Gaza is Iran's proxy war against Israel (similar to how the Houthi rebellion is Iran's proxy war against Saudi and other Arab states).

Those behind the war don't give S... about the Palestinians: these leaders not only encourage this hatred, but are busy stealing literally billions of dollars of aid money: diverting some to make tunnels, buy rockets etc. but also a lot of that money is being diverted into their pockets. Follow the money.

.

The present terrorist attacks, along with the hype/propaganda machine helped by the western press useful idiots who take their propaganda as truth, even after it is debunked, are trying not just to destroy Israel (the mullahs are getting more and more unpopular in Iran because of corruption, so hey start a war to distract people), 

but is also Iran's way of destroying the peaceful Arab world: but it is about undermining the West.

Iran's history is full of wars: against the Arab world and against the west. It  not only has it's roots in the Sunni/Shiite rivalry or the crusades, but actually it predates Islam by a thousand years when the Persian empire took the area over, and of course, the wars of Persia vs Greece, the take over by Alexander the great, and the ancient Rome vs Persia wars being refought.

What: You think that the Muslim riots in the west are about Israel? 

Nepali paper plant

 My relatives who are artists do make paper for some of their projects but I know little or nothing about it. 

So I was interested to read today's Global Voices blog, where they publish a report on the Neapli paper plant being grown there.

They note that a plant, Edgeworthia gardneri, aka the Nepali paper bush, that grows in Nepal and nearby areas is now being cultivated by local farmers and exported to Japan to make high quality paper.

The durability of this paper is the reason that the paper note for the Japanese Yen is made from a Nepali plant.

This interested me on several levels: First, because encouraging local crafts and plants is important in these days of globalization that homogenizes everything into cheap but shoddy goods.

However economically, the small craft and small farmers will have to export the goods to make a decent profit, and that means a lot of middle men will become rich too (this has good and bad effects on society and the economy).

I'll give an example:

We used to supervise a  home craft industry ten years ago here, where local ladies could make beautiful Christmas ornaments and get paid 100 pesos (2 dollars) for each one (minimum wage here is seven dollars a day). The ladies could make several a day at home while caring for their families to supplement the family income.

The problem was that the logistics of selling them mean a lot of money went to several middle men for checking quality control, packing and shipping before the ornament sold for16 dollars in the USA.

I suspect the same thing here. 

But it does allow the locals to stay on the farm, instead of finding work overseas as literally millions of Nepali citizens have to do each year.

The second reason I found it interesting is that eventually it will mean monoculture farming of the plant in that area, which has ecological implications for other plants.

Ah, but as the demand increases, and as people get more affluent, they will devise machinery to plant and harvest it more efficiently and so make more of a profit for the farmers. 

This is something we are seeing as our rice farmers were given their traditional plots with land reform: they made a profit, so their kids went to school and had more opportunities to work so left, and the farms are gradually being mechanized. 

But the main reason I found it interesting was that it was part of the history of paper. Something I will have to explore when I have time.

This video is about the trade

It's the food, stupid

 when Clinton ran for president, his slogan was: It's the economy stupid.

Right now, the Philippines is getting back to normalcy: but are our OFW getting their jobs back?

And what about local investment? BBMarcos is busy trying to make ties to nearby countries such as Singapore, Korea, Indonesia... and where does China vs the US investments come into this? I'm not sure: I'm sure the human rights types who look the other way when China puts a million Uighars into reeducation camps will hyperventillate if Marcos arrests a few human rights types who actually are helping local terror groups under the thesis that these mlitants love poor people (I saw this in Africa, so it's not a Philippine problem).

But anyway, right now there are shortages of salt and sugar. And things might be worse because we import a lot of food.

I am not an expert in the economy, but we do grow organic rice and are in the early rice crop season, and the price of  fertilizer including organic fertilizer, and pesticies has gone way up.,,,,,, 

to make things worse, the businesslady who bought last year's crop has not paid for it yet. 

Luckily we have some savings to keep the farm running, but one wonders how many farmers will go bankrupt, caught in the trap of increased prices to grow food and investors who cheat to increase prices of food and encourage importation of food instead of investing in local farmers.

will this result in large agribusinesses buying up land from these bankrupt (and often aging) farmers, and the end result being more efficent agriculture? 

On the other hand, there is a limit to how much land any person can own (which is why we subcontract a lot of our crops). And there is a ban on outsiders owning local real estate and businesses (although traditionally this is worked around by outsiders marrying a local gal and putting the land/business in her name).

So will our area, which grows a lot of the rice and veggies for Manila, be essentially lost to development?

Maybe... but Kuya notes that with the local roads being improved that investors are buying up rice fields near these roads for development (country houses, resorts, factories, etc).

and the big problem right now is the shortage of fertilizer and the increase in the price of diesel/LPG...part of this a world wide problem due to the shortage of natural gas because of Russia but also because of green policies (Biden's policies changed America from an exporter to an importer of fossil fuels).

But never mind.

Corruption is a big problem, and one that the churches should be paying attention to  instead of having the Pope push love of mother earth and the Catholic bishops here in the Philippines opposing investment in fossil fuels that would keep local prices down and help the poor...(one bishop actually dared to whisper that they needed to pay more attention to the plight of the poor, but one doesn't know if he means doing something practical to improve the economy and get jobs for the poor, or just getting a photo op to show they love the poor).

a lot of this is complicated, and here is a discussion of the problem that brings up a lot of these issues.

,,,,,

Universal ID? We haz that

The Biblical conspiracy theories are that there will be a mark of the beast, where everyone will be forced to use it to buy or sell anything. In effect, it allows the government/banks to control you under the threat of financial ruin.

In the USA this is believed by a lot of people, and it's not just the fundamentalist types: Privacy groups are worried too. Because if you post the wrong thing, not only can you be censored from the social media, but in the near future this could mean your bank account will be frozen. And with a universal ID card, it is easy to find who you are and where your money is. 

Pushing digital currancy should be no problem: after all we use credit cards, don't we? And they are safe, aren't they? What could go wrong?

UhOh: Justin Trudeau just had the banks close the accounts  of the Bouncy castle protesters showing how easily this could be done. True, he reversed it in a few days, but it showed what could be done.

In the USA, they never had a universal ID card and in the past they even forbade using the Social Security number for identification for this reason (not true now: every other form of ID asks for either the SSN or part of the SSN to confirm who you are).

So how does one prove one's identity in the US for something like cashing a check or getting on an airplane? Ironically, to get on an airplane most people use their drivers license which are issued by states, not the federal government, since few have passports. 

And the refusal to use a universal ID is not limited to the rabid Republican right: Indeed, worrying that someone will figure out who you are is one reason that the Democrats, who represent the poorer classes in the USA, have opposed requiring ID cards to vote in elections. 

Of course, getting a fake ID is easy, but that's another story. But if it is easy in the fairly honest country like the USA, just think of what will be going on in more corrupt countries.

which brings us to this article that I found in today's Inquirer:

PH must step up digital shift for better cash aid system – WB....

 

The World Bank (WB) has urged the Philippine government to ramp up digital government-to-person (G2P) payments, mainly by tapping other financial services providers like e-wallets, to speed up and ensure the efficient distribution of “ayuda” (cash assistance) during a crisis. 

... “The lack of identification documents is one of the reasons for being unbanked in the country where only 29 percent of adults have a bank or mobile money account...

but what about rural folks, when the ATM or bank is 20 km down a dirt road?

To address these financial inclusion gaps, especially in remote communities, it urged the government to partner with financial service providers other than banks, like mobile wallets.

Now they have me lost. I have used credit cards for years, but I rarely use them here because I distrust them, and they are easily stolen. So I would also distrust a digital wallet linked to a cellphone that is easily stolen. This is not true of the younger generation: Kuya and his daughter use them all the time, just as they buy stuff via e-commerce, wheras I usually go to the Palenke or mall and pay cash to get what I need.

My suspicion of e commerce is a generational thing: Lolo didn't even use credit cards, but would pull out a couple of $100 dollar bills to pay for groceries etc. in Walmart. And don't get me started on crypto currancy and bit coin, which some countries like India and the Philippines are looking into right now. Some say a crypto currancy backed by gold will replace the dollar in the near future, and this may explain why gold based currancy is being pushed by China who is buying a lot of gold.

Something to remember if China decides to regain their long lost province of Luzon...

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update: another reason I am skeptical of the internet control of everything is that the internet infrastructure here was affected by earthquakes that wiped out a major cable, and because we have had typhoon related floods cause no electricity etc..

So what could go wrong?

Backstories that might point to the future

 Scott Adams usually has his analysis of the news, but today he notes that a famous investor is investing in a company making fusion electricity by 2024.

LINK

this article discusses the company that has this in it's plans.

Fusion (plus the newer nuclear tech, e.g. salt reactors) should calm down the anti fossil fuel civil war. And if cheap, it could help us in poor countries, or in places like China, where demand for electricity is huge and who know the green technology is a big sluggish (something few pc westerners want to admit).

------------------------------- 

in a follow up on the new medicine that might make Covid a curable disease, which if true should calm down the vax vs anti vax civil war:

the ability to treat the disease means that the hysteria and fights over limiting people's freedom vs stopping the disease by mask/quarantine/mandatory vaccines should calm down. 

True, the anti capitalism/anti big pharmy types will still hyperventillate that the drug company will make oodles of money with the medicine (never mind  it will save lives), 

and the conspiracy types will get angry that now a big powerful drug company have the power to push approval through the bureaucrats, and will find a minor side effect for them to say hey it's dangerous so don't take it,

On the other hand, one does wonder if the reason that cheap medicines like Ivermectin (70 percent prevention/treatment success) were pooh poohed,. was that there was no big money benefit behind the medicine for anyone

Sign.

-----------------------

my take on green stuff:

Pollution is bad, and much of the deforestation and damage from mines and petroleum ignores that their proposals to elimiate such stuff kills people. (get rid of corruption, place laws that limit damge, and voila, both people and environment benefit).

Take Illegal logging: Bribe the government officials, bribe the company to do it in a shoddy manner, don't replant to stop erosion. And of course, the poor people there who are desperate for jobs and money to feed their family will willingly work for you. (for very low pay of course: no unions to check for safety or decent wages).

But eliminate logging, then the poor people starve, or migrate to the big cities looking for work. Voila, slums, people who lose their family ties, lots of unemployed and street kids who take drugs to get high or make a buck, etc. etc.

Sigh.

In other words, A lot of the worse environmental damage here in the third world is because corruption allows it.

Capitalism has lifted 80 percent of the world out of poverty over the last 100 years: so stop bashing capitalism per se and teach the necessity of morality that allows trust, something that is necessaary for capitalism to thrive.

And as for those people who say give money to poor countries to help them fight climate change: Uh, you know that the money will be stolen.

I wish the Pope would push honesty and to stop the corruption instead of trendy green memes that have little or no benefit to anyone here in poor areas, but will make the rich first world activists feel self righteous and richer.

The Union lament

 

The story of Norma Rae is about unionizing the mills in the south...

ah the good old days when working class folk were not the enemy.

The irony of this?

The textile industry in New England became unionized, which led to higher wages and working conditions. (I knew one of the union organizers, who had met the Kennedys before they were famous, because they had ties with the unions)

but the long term result was that the textile industry moved to the south, where wages were low and unions were not popular... this Atlantic article from 1954 is about that issue. and it notes how JFK saw the problem .

In his first year as the Junior Senator from Massachusetts, JOHN F. KENNEDY in three incisive speeches hit hard at the unfair competitive practices that have led industry to migrate from New England to the South. He argued that substandard wages and tax subsidies are no foundation on which to build a stable economy, and then presented his program for a fairer competition—a program which he has graphically illustrated in the article which follows.

so the textile industry moved to the south, where people were anti union and were willing to work for lower wages.

and the Atlantic article notes this paradox: short term, loss of good jobs, long term, other businesses took their place in the north, and the increase in prosperity led to more customers to buy stuff...

I saw this in my own family: My uncle ran a small hosiery mill and saw this coming... so instead of holding on, he retooled his hosiery mill to make small parts and became a millionaire: but many others just went bankrupt).

So the unions, who initially helped the worker, actually harmed them in the long run. Because the better wages led to higher costs, and fewer people could afford the product. 

And voila; Globalization expanded. So the larger companies merely moved their factories overseas: which is why, if you look into the label on your clothing, you will find it was made in Pakistan, Guatemala, etc. and a lot of other thing made in China.

Ah, but despite the cries of sweat shop and worker exploitation, the long term result was the elimination of poverty.

And that is the paradox: because it also led to family disruption and cultural changes, both good and bad.

This is not a new problem: if you ever heard the term "Luddite", this refers to the industrial revolution that replace home weavers with huge factories that made textiles (often working long hours in horrific conditions). 

But it also relieved women of the never ending work of spinning thread or weaving cloth and sewing it for the family: which is why the word Spinster refers to the unmarried women who helped out their family at home by spinning and doing other chores.

and although the factories are often "sweat shops", the dirty little secret is that often they are better than the rural poverty which was the alternative for these workers. 

Unionizations was the response to the sweatshops and bad financial compensation for workers... and although often the unions were tainted by socialism/Marxism, even the Popes supported the idea. LINK a philosophy that is still being seen as a part of the church outreach to protect ordinary folk.

(Rerum Novarum) discusses the relationships and mutual duties between labor and capital, as well as government and its citizens. Of primary concern is the need for some amelioration of "the misery and wretchedness pressing so unjustly on the majority of the working class."[5] It supports the rights of labor to form unions, rejects both socialism and unrestricted capitalism, while affirming the right to private property.

One of the ironies of the Trump era is that he tried to protect American workers by stopping the importation of cheap labor who, because they were undocumented, were vunerable to exploitation in many different ways.

No one wanted to admit that the drop in unemployment was because the competition was stopped and companies had to pay decent wages, and his "anti China" policies were about stopping the importation of cheap goods (and often shoddy goods) that destroyed American jobs. enables more jobs, etc.

this went against the religion of the globalists, who saw his policies as a threat to their plans.  LINK2.

the jobs sent overseas hurt American workers, but lifted millions aout of poverty. And it also let Americans buy cheap goods that otherwise would be beyond their budget.

So there has been a huge drop in poverty, thanks to the capitalists moving their factories overseas.

and this is especially true for China, but is also true for other Asian countries.

Here is a propaganda film by the Chinese government that pretends it was their plan all along... ignoring other factors of course.

Africa has been lagging, partly due to corruption, but also due to the fact that those doing development work tend to be green in orientation. (for example, encouraging small farmers to grow like their ancestors did).

China is the exploiting African minerals and agriculture, a policy that some call neocolonialism.

But one does hope that the huge increase in Chinese investments in Africa (and in Afghanistan) there will in the long run result in a drop in poverty.

The bad news? The covid epidemic, and especially the overblown shutdowns in an effort to stop it's spread, has resulted in a lot of people out of work, and a huge increase in poverty, especially in third world countries.

And there are rumbles of an economic collapse of the stock market in China that bodes ill for the future.

 Sigh.

Bless the child of the workin' man 

She knows too soon who she is 

And bless the hands of a workin' man 

He knows his soul is his 

So it goes like it goes and the river flows 

And time it rolls right on 

And maybe what's good gets a little bit better 

And maybe what's bad gets gone

Yes, your immune system remembers

 In a previous post I mentioned that post infection of most antigens/viruses/bacteria/etc. that even if you don't have a lot of antibodies  in your blood, your immune cells keep a memory of that infection and quickly rev up and produce antibodies.

I cited  two articles saying that, one an NIH and another from Japan, but today on reading Legal Insurrection blog, he has a link to a Nature article from May 2021 that says the same thing:

Had COVID? You’ll probably make antibodies for a lifetime 

People who recover from mild COVID-19 have bone-marrow cells that can churn out antibodies for decades, although viral variants could dampen some of the protection they offer...

The study provides evidence that immunity triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection will be extraordinarily long-lasting. Adding to the good news, “the implications are that vaccines will have the same durable effect”, says Menno van Zelm, an immunologist at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia..

and LI blog notes: 

 

based on previous experience with the global coronavirus pandemic of 1889 and paired with the fact that SARC-CoV was engineered to adhere readily to human respiratory systems, the rules of epidemiology currently followed by the Biden administration may not be applicable.

Some of the more serious scientists are questioning COVID-theology and reassessing whether “herd immunity” is a reasonable goal.

this is especially true given that China, who bragged their shutdown and other covid policies were successful, now is in the midst of a new outbreak.

In other words, there is a reason behind the hysteria against masks and giving vaccines to those who might be immune or be able to survive a case because they are healthy: because like the yearly influenza jab that we used to give mainly to the elderly and high risk groups, ordinary folks just don't need it because their risk from having the disease is low, and because the covid virus, like the Influenza virus, quickly mutates, so that your shot might not work in everyone. That is why you need a yearly flu vaccine, where the docs try to guess what the next strain will be and make the vaccine to stop that new strain.

Having the US President, who is already in trouble politically because of his clueless withdrawal from Afghanistan, push harsh penalties if you don't take the vaccine or follow isolation rules, is not the way to go: because despite all the censorship in the media. the dissenting voices are still out there and are being believed: because they are now catching the experts in lies (such as denying that the US NIH funded the Wuhan lab, and that those funds enabled them to do gain of function studies that were too dangerous to do in the US, and were banned thanks to liberal activists, but the NIH found a way to slip them money with a loophole) 

Indeed, given that the world elites are openly saying that the epidemic proves we need a "reset" of the economy, one does wonder if the hysteria is being hyped so they can do a quick takeover of the world.

Yes, the epidemic is bad: so at first, the hysteria was justified, but now with many in the world either having immunity from the vaccine or from mild cases, the virus is becoming endemic (i.e. around all the time and hitting some people, but at a low rate because most people are immune or have partial immunity meaning they only get mildly sick,  although the high risk are still in danger) rather than epidemic (huge number of cases in populations who have no immunity, which leads to deaths as the medical system is overwhelmed).

And the huge cost of economic shutdown has terrible implications  for poorer countries, who follow the US lead: Manila continues to be in shut down, meaning hunger and poverty will kill many. Duterte is popular (despite the propaganda you read, his war on drugs kept ordinary people safe and they still support him because of this) but with an election coming up, I won't say the same in the future.

By the way: Here is the Wikipedia article on the 1889 epidemic that we assumed was a type of influenza, and indeed some studies confirmed that. But now there is a question if it was a covid virus.

the reason I bring this up: the same folks pushing hysteria to implement strict rules that are limiting civil rights and controlling behavior are also pushing the global warming hysteria again.

Global warming wasn't big in 1889, nor in past epidemics: what made epidemics rare in the modern world was clean water and having enough food to eat. 

|

Sheesh: a lab virus that escaped was the cause of the Covid epidemic, not global warming.  But never let an epidemic go to waste.

As a doc, I am aghast at the overreach of authorities here: partly because it is making people distrust not only vaccines but doctors and the public health authorities.

But might I quietly point out that, thanks to vaccines and quarantine, the WHO and other public health authorities stopped epidemics of Yellow fever in Angola (which spread to China before it was controlled) and how new vaccines are now keeping a huge Ebola epidemic under control in Central Africa.

similarly, the big killer is not something exotic, but diarrhea, which can be stopped by clean water supplies (and for cholera and rotovirus, by vaccines).

Bet you never heard of these epidemics, because they can't be weaponized for political purposes in the west.

------------------

update

FDA panel says boosters needed only for high risk people.

Economics or superheroes?

 my grandson was into Japanese superheroes, and here we have an entire TV station that shows these cartoons.

Alas, they are long and hard for me to get into them, and a lot of them are like the recent hit movie, Demon Slayer, where the plot is killing monsters.

Ah, but what do you think of a manga called How a Realist Hero Rebuilt the Kingdom?

The plot? a small country needs to pay it's debt to a smaller country, but is given the option to use their magic power to summon a hero to destroy their common enemy. Since they don't have the money, they do the ritual... but they do it incorrectly and summon a student accountant by mistake.

who instead of deciding which magic sword will help him in the battle has a meeting

he then spends a lot of time looking at the books (finding a lot of corruption), 

Next step?

selling unneeded treasures owned by the king. Putting policies intact that will mean enough food will be planted to feed the people. Making the forests productive by thinning the trees and selling lumber. Asking a local gourmet to popularize new foods for people to eat. 

Oh yes, and of course this is a manga, so romance and fighting of course.

With my limited attention span, I probably won't get around to watching the entire manga (on line here to read).

But I find it interesting that it mixes magic with the very real problems of the world... 

the real skills needed in a country are not superhero skills but those of economics. 

Which is why Goldman Sachs has the ten thousand women initiative to teach and help local entrepeneurs like Joy, who I mentioned in a previous blogpost. 

Because give a man a fish, he eats for a day. Teach him to fish (and get him a loan to buy his own boat) and he feeds his family for decades.

Which is why I, a person who has worked as a missionary and in poor areas in what would be called charity work, am so angry when the Pope goes around saying live simply and help the poor.  

Saying things like that imply he only wants to preach to the upper middle class in rich countries.

Here, maybe better advice would be to invest your money in an industry that gives jobs to the unemployed instead of building chapels to celebrate the environment.

Maybe, even, you should teach the ten commandments to all those corrupt Catholic politicians. 

Here in the Philippines, corruption and nepotism are limiting the economic growth... so one tenth of the population work overseas, either as temporary OFW or as immigrants.

In other words, the Philippine economy is held up by wages sent back to families by their OFW, but a smarter country would keep them and find a way for them to use their skills to make the country rich.

Well, the Philippines has improved a lot in recent years thanks to Duterte whacking a lot of drug dealers. When he took over, there was danger of the Philippines becoming a narco state, something often ignored by the "human rights" NGOs.

We are like an old Jeepney: falling apart, slow but we get there.

Finally, I'd like to add that the press seems full of breathless (and admiring stories) about the Taliban's successes.

But I wonder: how will they run the place?

I saw Mozambique fall into mass starvation when the communists threw out all those with an education as colonialist exploiters. But then the place collapsed. 

I saw Zimbabwe go downhill and Mugabe persecuting not just the white farmers but the educated class who were terrorized by his green bomber gangs, so many fled to England or South Africa to be safe and to support their families, while Mugabe and his minions lived high off the hog during a major famine.

I left Liberia shortly before the coup that overthrew President Tolbert took place, and Sargent Doe took over. 

Someone from the American embassy tried to advise Sargent Doe about the problems of running the country, and explained what would happen if these things weren't taken care of: "Country Go Kaput"

So unless another country wants to go in and take the place over and run things, Afghanistan could very well go "kaput", meaning hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into Pakistan, Iran and other nearby countries, along with their criminal elements and heroin trade connections.

So who is running things in Afghanistan?

Russia?  (in the north)

The Turks? (running the airport)

The Chinese? (planning to take over their mineral resources, but since they probably won't hire locals to run the mines, this will mainly help the corrupt politicians).

Remember, there have been a drought in that area, and a lot of hunger in the remote villages this year could mean mass starvation and more refugees.

so the Taliban government can take all their weapons and shout in front of the cameras, but will they use their trucks and jeeps to take food to their villages? 

and in the capital: Who will keep the water running, clean up the garbage, keep the electricity on, keep the gas stations supplied, and of course stop the looters and criminals who will quickly start attacking normal people?

Will they end up selling the weapons for money? If so, that money, just like aid money, will probably go into the pockets of the corrupt leaders, not pay the salaries of experts to actually run these vital industries.

Then there is covid. Who will take care of the sick?

Who will get in supplies, especially when covid or more common disease like Dengue, dysentary, measles etc hit?

As I had mentioned in a previous post, two of the Filipinos who came back from Afghanistan were with Doctors without Borders, meaning they are leaving too... And of course the usual suspects (Christian churches who help out in disasters) will be forbidden.

So yes, I think Biden made a mistake in not withdrawing properly (strategic withdrawal is a skill that many civilians don't know about).

But the dirty little secret is that Americans have done a bit of building up the infrastructure, including educating people to run things, but without a culture that allows the growth of civil society, things will go to hell.

and outsiders, even those with the best intention, can't do that.

--------------------

update:

StrategyPage has an article on when extremists took over part of Iraq and tried to make it into a 7th century utopia.

Getting electricity, water and sanitation networks operating was a priority but crippled by lack of supplies (especially fuel) and spare parts as well as people qualified to repair, maintain or operate these utilities.

using foreigners was not done because it was't Islamic, so they tried to get modern Moslem workers from other countries. 

Few qualified foreign Moslems arrived and the result was intermittent water supplies, unreliable sanitation systems and lots of people using portable generators for power or just living in the dark like their 7th century ancestors....

and who took care of the sick?

the collapse of the medical care system has left most people with few useful options if they got sick or injured. ISIL considers such misfortunes “the will of God '' and complainers are regarded as heretics.

all of this while the leaders stole everything in site and laundered it with the help of Turkish and other international banks, of course.

Look for a similar thing to happen in Afghanistan.