propaganda works

a good summary

Iran and terrorist psychopaths are the reason for Trumpieboy's war: But no one wants to admit this.

 

......

the shame is that the left has joined the jihad, and anyone defending Western Society is the enemy of the NWO.

We live in a world where Monty Python is the voice of reason:

I would like to point out that Starmer has now managed to alienate the extreme centre

His plans for the evisceration of English culture will be outlined in a new Labour publication called 'Der Starmer' https://t.co/qG3YSLDcMi

— John Cleese (@JohnCleese) March 8, 2026

........

DataRepublican (Small r( has a long analysis of the data. It is hopeful but explains the problems why the war might be prolonged.

 She uses hard facts, not propaganda.

several facts I didn't know: The Strait of Hormuz is closed to traffic due to insurance companies.

There are preset military assets all over the country who are seimi independent to hit other countries etc. Eventually they will run out of weapons but they do not rely on Tehran

There are enough religious zealots to keep the mullahs intact.

and finally if the price of oil increases, the US will make a bundle of money. I sort of know this because when I lived in Oklahoma, the price of oil went up and they started pumping the wells again and our neighbor quit his job as a nursing assistant to go back to work in the oil industry

.

from Wikipedia: a long analysis of the oil price spikes in the early 2000s.

preparing for terrorist attack?

 

The Secret Service dismantled a network of more than 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards in the New York-area that were capable of crippling telecom systems and carrying out anonymous telephonic attacks, disrupting the threat before world leaders arrived for the UN General… pic.twitter.com/sZKUeGqvGY

— U.S. Secret Service (@SecretService) September 23, 2025

more here at LegalInsurrection:

a discovery officials say had the capacity to blind cellular communications and overwhelm emergency channels just as world leaders convened for the U.N. General Assembly...

investigators discovered tens of thousands of co-located and network cellular devices capable of carrying out nefarious telecommunications attacks. These devices allowed anonymous, encrypted communications between potential threat actors and criminal enterprises, enabling criminal organizations to operate undetected.

This network had the potential to disable cell phone towers and essentially shut down the cellular network in New York City.”

an article on electronic warfare can be read here if you want details on why this was a big threat.

Renenber when the Ukraine was attacked by Russia, and the west was dithering on how to help them? Well, Russia took out their communications networks, so Elon Musk positioned satellites and sent in receivers so they could use Starlink

>Wikipedia link might not be accurate but does have a lot of information about this.

here in the Philippines, China is involved in both internet and telecommunications, so we are vulnerable, and of course the internet cables go through the West Philppine sea....

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

update: Conservative news site Breitbart says the Simcards etc were involved with swatting attacks agianst Republicans and government officials.

Targets of the swatting calls reportedly include Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Nikki Haley. The Secret Service’s Advanced Threat Interdiction Unit, in collaboration with various law enforcement agencies, traced the swatting signals to several locations in the New York tri-state area. Upon further investigation, they found a sophisticated network of SIM servers capable of generating enormous amounts of phone traffic while rapidly switching out SIM cards to evade detection

.

Definition of swat attack:  calling in an emergency that requires police to intervene. This can be dangerous since the police assume criminal activity and might even send in a SWAT team, while those at the location might assume this is an attack by criminals and shoot in self defense.

If the system was used to attack political enemies, it suggests an entity willing to use sophisticated devices to harm for political purposes. But why use such a sophisticated network for what is usuallly seen as a prank or a minor crime?

But the real danger: That a rogue state operative is working with local terrorist groups.

This, not the murder of Chralie Kirk, might be one of the reasons Trumpieboy has declared Antifa to be a terrorist organization.

Developing...

Helping the needy or cooperating with evil?

Instapundit posted this tweet, and alas it is true:

An important read from Prof. Netta Barak-Corren in the WSJ.

It isn't just Gaza.

"In every conflict I have studied—Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Ethiopia and Gaza—the same aid trucks double as cash machines for warlords, militias and authoritarian regimes." pic.twitter.com/vhvXDk7ZHR

— Elliot Kaufman (@ElliotKaufman6) August 10, 2025

,,,,,

see previous post about the dilemma of do gooders in a time of civil war.

When I worked in Africa, when the insurgents controlled the roads, we would send a message that we would be fetching supplies on a certain day, and we would get a list of supplies (mainly food and medicine) and where to drop it off during the trip.

But in Gaza, Somalia, and many other areas, the rich war lords rely on naive do gooders not just for supplies but for money. And thanks to Al J and Qatar and European and other leftists, they get away with propaganda to tug at your heart so you don't recognize they are diabolical narcissists manipulating you so  you can forget that they started the war and they are prolonging the war and they are endangering the locals with hiding weapons in civilian areas and stealing food aid for their soldiers, not to mention the hostages they keep illegally.

Giving them help will prolong the war and more people will die in the long run of course, but if you need antibiotics and bandages for your clinic, what is your alternative? And if you want to help the starving, do you cooperate with evil to help them?

By the way: This is the dilemma of the Jesuit in the movie and book Silence, where a Jesuit denies Christ and tries to persuade others to deny Christ so they won't be killed in horrible ways.

And this is the dilemma of aid to many war torn areas of the world: Gaza is in the headlines because those in charge are cynically skilled at manipulating the press, but we see this in several African countries, Burma (northern tribes and Rohingye refugees), etc. Even here in the Philippines, we had many do gooders (both foreign and locals) kidnapped by Islamic terrorists for ransom: refusing to pay slowed down this lucrative business, but not all countries and families cooperate with the no ransom rule.

However, that said, when these do gooders deny one of the side effect of their actions is that they are aiding those who are making war on civlians, we have a problem.

And when these do gooders and NGOs even cooperate with the propaganda of thugs who openly admit that mass murder is part of their plan, then we have cooperation with evil.

walter duranty would be proud

 the hoaxes of Hamas are echoed by the MSM

I have worked in war zones, and this angers me because it is distorting what is going on to stay in power, 

and the more they get their useful idiots (to use Stalin's term) to parrot the propaganda to get allies to their side (they support Hamas out of compassion because they believe the propaganda), the less they will be willing to negotiate an end to this war, and the more people will die.

This reminds me of the propaganda about Viet Nam, where the lies ignored both the corruption of the south's government and the open atrocities of the North Vietnamese soldiers who were fighting to impose communism. The naive were manipulated and pressured the US withdrawal thinking the result would be peace, but where as soon as the war ended, the MSM and the public looked the other way while millions were killed, died fleeing, or put into concentration camps by the communists.

what angers me the most is that they are weaponizing compassion: as Neibuhr observed, the naive children of light underestimate evil and by doing so allow evil to win.

Indeed, with the Europeans now not only condemn Israel for non existant genocide,  they are saying they want a Palestinian state by those very same murderers who started the war and stole aid money to buy weapons to go to war.

The Europeans, unlike the other Arab countries are not stating who should run it. But what is worse, by playing into their cynical manipulation/psychological warfare, they essentially are encouraging, Hamas to leave the negotiations for peace last week, and hence prolong the war and suffering of their people. Because hey, they are essentially outsiders who are puppets of Iran's plans to take over the Islamic world, and don't care for their people.

Legal Insurrecton has an article on the top Pallywood hoaxes.

 Here are two examples

one:  the exaggerated number of dead:

98% of global outlets use the death toll figures provided by Hamas. 

And Hamas would never lie, would they?  

 Even then, Hamas’s numbers — under 60,000 fatalities, three quarters of them are men between 13 and 55 — do not satisfy the anti-Zionist true believers.

In other words, most of the dead are militry age men, or soldiers, not civilians. But of course this is ignored by the True believers.  

In a manner reminiscent of the unstoppable global warming hype, a group of activists took it upon themselves to extrapolate from projections.

italics mine. 

Last summer, the British magazine Lancet published a statement speculating that the total number of fatalities could be as high as 186,000.

Lancet is not merely a British magazine, but used to be an esteemed medical journal, and traditionally medical journals are supposed to be scientifically accurate. But in the last 30 years, these journals (Lancet, BMJ, NEJM, JAMA9 have allowed activists to publish politically biased articles to manipulate the public  not just here but in the Gulf war and Covid. 

The author Martin McKee soon admitted that the figure is “purely illustrative.”

translation: Made up. 

His piece was not an article, but a non-peer reviewed letter.

In other words, no one checked his data. And no one bothered to point this out as his opinion was pushed as fact by the MSM.

Nonetheless, it made headlines and gave Anti-Zionists an opening to say that, according to the most prestigious medical journal in the world, the number of casualties in Gaza is much higher than reported....

this is not the only time that the "most prestigious medical journal in the world", i.e. Lancet was behind a hoax to push a psyop for the powers that be.

 Lancet publishing a letter that Covid was not a lab leak? How dare you suggest maybe Chinese lab was careless (even though there had been other known lab leads in China in recent years).

And only later did they retract part of the lttr since this letter was sponsored and written by the head of Ecohealth, who were funding the wuhan lab's research... 

Place Fauci and Big Pharma conspiracy theory here. In the past it was the Democrats who would have noticed and investigated this, and lucky for the USA, RFK Jr., a Democrat, is willing to do this for Trump, an ex Democrat...

Nor is this scandal an isolated case:: even science Magazine noted the biased ar icles against drugs that could treat covid.  

The same here, and the same thing happened in reviewing using medicines to treat covid: Bad data, but hey Trump pointed out that maybe these medicines should be used, so the journals decided to itnore science becuse orange man bad.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,

and another hoax that is being trumpeted is against the US/Israel food distribution. 

The other NGOs are mad because this was started because they cooperated with Hamas, i.e. let them smuggle in weapons with the food, and also let them steal the food and sell it for a profit. 

A good reporter would notice this, but hey most of AlJ's reporters and the NGO reporters are Hamas patsies.

again from LI:

In late May, Hamas began alleging that the Israeli Defense Forces were firing on Gazans congregating near GHF distribution points, killing hundreds.

I believe the source of this hoax was some deaths shooting rioters who were attacking the food distribution center. So there is a splinter of truth. 

But of course like the civilian deaths, it is being distorted out of context and with exaggerated numbers. 

why do I say this? Because of the dog that didn't bark...

Despite the fact that every Gazan has a cell phone, no such event has been documented. Pallywood didn’t bother to fake videos of the diseased or stage funeral processions.

 

Israel’s own footage confirmed that no bullets were fired at the crowd at the time of alleged massacres. Yet plenty of recordings of Hamas stealing aid and abusing Gazans are flooding social media. Hundreds of trucks worth of aid are left undistributed.

In the meanwhile, the aid supposed to be given out by the UN and the NGOs is just sitting there. Why? 

Although the IDF found no signs of it, some observers believe that the terror group is trying to engineer a famine in the areas it controls in order to create diplomatic pressure on their neighbor.,,

and here it the way the heirs of Walter Duranty are imitating their hero: 

Western media today is increasingly allied with Qatar’s Al Jazeera on the question of Jews.

 

Media malpractice is nothing new, but when people are being lied to like that, it’s usually because they are being prepped for a genocide.

not just of Israel but of Jews world wide. One only has to look at what happened in universities against students because of their Jewish ancestry.

And alas even the Catholics are in on spreading the hatred: The Pope accepted the lies of Israel destroying a church (which didn't happen: a photo shop showed smoke from a nearby fire and focused the photo as if the church was burning). Well, I know from experience that the Catholic church is full of leftist idieologues who want to take over the church. But here, unlike the Latin mass and pedophile controversies, the Trads are also full of anti Semites who seem to believe long debunked conspiracy theories about the Jewish community.  

Sigh. 

.........................

two signs that the Middle East might explode again

 StrategyPage is worried about what is going on in the Middle East:

but another sign that things might be getting dangerous: The Philippines is telling the OFW working in Lebanon to come home.

and this doesn't include the war in the Ukraine, where the Ukraine invaded Russia, and of course, China threatening the Philippines in the west Philippine sea.

Oh well: Lolo promised me if I moved here I would always have rice to eat. The problem? The gov't decided to drain and dredge out the irrigation canal so no irrigation for our rice fields: it has rained enough to plant two of our fields a month later than usual, so hopefully we won't go broke, but I worry about our small famers (who might decide that they will sell their land to developers planning to put up huge solar farms in our province)...

Sigh.

Iran will push violence in the proxies for Ramadan

 Everyone assumes that the Hamas attacks against Israel was about the Palestinians.

Uh, wait a second: Hamas is run by Iran.

and what about all those stories about Israel bombing Lebanon for no reason?

The 100 thousand rockets in southern Lebanon are owned and operated by Hezbollah, which again is an Iranian proxy, and they have indeed sent a few to bomb Israel, but that part didn't get in the press. Why haven't they gone fully into the war? Because there are a lot of Sunni Muslims and Christians there who could restart that country's civil war, and hey if they want to plunder money from the country they need peace. Money is more important than religion you know.

Hezbollah is using Syria as a center to attack Israel too. That is why you read every now and then about Israeli airstrikes into that country.

Then there are the Houthis. These rebels don't run the place, only part of it, but they have been bombing Saudi for years (and don't even ask feminists why they haven't noticed their mistreatment of women there). And yes, they are funded by Iran.

The Houthis are against Israel and are using this as an excuse for using expensive missiles to hit civilian ships (and killing a few Filipino seamen while they are at it). What does this have to do with Israel? Nothing. But it is a twofer: They make the west look weak, and by diverting shipping from the Suez canal, they can hurt the Egyptian economy, and maybe have the Muslim brotherhood stage a rebellion there too. After all, Egypt, which had owned Gaza for 3000 years, but now refuses to allow the refugees (read a few civilians and lots of terrorists) enter into Egyptian territory is also the enemy.

and now, of course, when Israel goes into the west bank to arrest terrorists there, you won't read why they did this.

If you believe the propaganda that this is the poor Palestinians, you are wrong. It is Iran trying to intimidate the local Arab countries into letting them reestablish their Persian empire. 

But hey, inflating casualties and filling the press with violence porn works.

And Ramadan, the season of fasting that is supposed to let you be humble before God, is now here.

But the Crazies/Islamoterrorists think Ramadan is about killing their enemies. 

So the news are full of Gaza violence porn propaganda against Israel, with the press obediently reporting what Hamas says as if they never lied.

Sigh. 

Security?

 There are reports that NYC, after arresting civilians who fight back when someone assaults them or stops the mentally ill thugs from attacking others, now are sending in the National Guard to protect the subways.

This sound suspicious. Just arresting the obviously high or taking the obviously confused for mental health (and making sure they stay detained for awhile) would protect people not just from assaults but from infectious disease from the homeless using the subways for toilets.

The National Guard has training for riots but also for helping with local disasters (for example, floods).

But the National Guard probably won't have bullets in their guns 

Years ago, the late great Mayor Rizzo  (/s) refused to call out the NG when there was a riot in Philly: telling his critics: Our cops are used to being spit at and have stuff thrown at them, but the National Guard are not...

Indeed, a few years late, Kent State showed what happens when a nervous semi trained person gets attacked.

 Of course, the National Guard just by being there might stop the gangs from attacking folks to steal their stuff. But heaven help them if they actually hurt one of these gang members who just want to terrorize people for fun and make some money doing it. And of course, what about the mentally ill? If you see a mumbling dissheveled person attacking civilians, will you be allowed to stop them?

Police or trained security guards would be better, and a lot less worrisome for civilians.

However, what came to mind when I read this: most people in the National Guard have some training in NBC/CBRN warfare.

And this made me wonder: did someone detect a threat out there about a terrorist attack.

The chemical attack in the Japanese subway in 1995 and the 2004 bomb attacks on the train stations in Spain come to mind.

Here in the Philippines, to go into a mall, one has to get wanded (or go through a door similar to those in airports) and get someone to check inside packages and purses.

However, that hasn't stopped attacks, mainly with bombs in churches, bus stations, casinos, ferries, and open air markets that usually have only one or two security guards to catch petty criminals but are not necessarily trained to detect bombs or explosives. Of course not all of these are Islamic or NPA attacks: some are just criminals or personal vendettas.

So which NG units are being sent into NYC subways? Those with expertise in crowd control, units of military police, or units with specialized expertise in detecting bombs etc.?

Why are some of them openly wearing bullet proof vests?

and why are they only being told to do random checks of bags? Anyone who has been in an airport knows that this means that grannies with bags will be searches, but suspicious looking young males will not be searched for fear of being called racist. 

Dirty little secret: Cops often detect problems by the perpetrator's body language, so are the NG trained in this? (the MP units are often cops so yes some of them have this expertise. but ordinary units not so much). 

The news reporters are a bit naive and hasn't seemed to ask such questions.

Civil rights are being emphasized by the governor, who assures the public that those with mental health problems will be taken for treatment.

the joke is that those arrested will quickly be left out on the streets, and of course the mentally ill will also be released.

Urban warfare with a side of drugs

 There is a lot of clueless news stories about what Israel faces if they try to weed out the Jihadi terrorists from Gaza.

the best analysis of what Israel and the local population will face comes more from military sites than the MSM who lacks expertise and are biased (I mean, the NYTimes spread the hospital hoax for days because they didn't check the story but believed the propaganda news release).

Urban warfare is wicked, especially when the defenders can hide in a city where they know where to hide (and in Gaza this includes tunnels and hostages, both Isarelis who were kidnapped and locals who support them).

The Philippine military faced a similar problem when Islamic terrorists took over the city of Marawi, where the majority of people by the way did not support these terrorists.

Here is a lecture/essay on the story about the lesson of the Marawi seige.

 the site has a long list of podcast discussions there for background of the problems the military would face in this urban warfare situation of Gaza.

Tunnels anyone?

One difference between Gaza and Marawi:

luckily for the Philippines, the local Muslims did not help them because they were negotiating with the government at the time for a peaceful solution (one reason the outsider ISIS types did this was opposition to the peace process). 

Indeed, they mention the local Muslim insurgents helped the evacuating/fleeing  population instead of joining these militants.

But the end result of the battle was a destroyed city.

The costs of the Battle of Marawi were high. Opinions on infrastructure damage vary but aerial imagery indicates that huge swathes of the city have been devastated by the fighting – the mass destruction flattening entire city blocks. The World Bank estimates it may take two decades to restore Marawi to its original condition. However, the true price of the battle is that paid by the people of Marawi and the lives of those fighting in it. 165 members of the AFoP were killed in action, with over 1000 injured. Some reports indicate over 1000 insurgents were killed in the siege, which also took the lives of 47 civilians. The fighting drove over 400, 000 people from their homes.....

The Marawi experience suggests that such small teams, operating seamlessly alongside engineers, artillery and armour – as well as combat medics and military police – fighting as combined-arms sections, platoons, combat teams and battlegroups, are essential

They discuss who it took so long for the Philippine military to overcome them: The militants knew where the AFP was because they had drones, and they knew where to hide to ambush them. And the militants used middle eastern sources to beam pleading from kidnapped local hostages against the attack.

The Philippines used the social media to get their story out to bypass the MSM who often picked up the insurgent propaganda via their middle eastern contacts.

Like Gaza, they had tunnels in Marawi, and stored their munitions in mosques so that the Philippine military could not flatten these areas for fear of upsetting locals.

Snipers and RPG bombs and booby traps to stop soldiers from entering buildings also used by militants.

their analysis is that it took months for the Philippines to clear the militants who learned how to fight in the Middle East.

In Gaza, the population has had anti Israeli propaganda aimed at them for years, and an Arab street who believes the sophisticated anti Israel propaganda that is happily spread by a clueless local media (and alas the western media).

But the lesson of Malawi is that it will take months to clear the terrorists

Alas the propaganda outlets will continue to push every lie put out by the Hamas propaganda ministry.

Yes, I know: 300 thousand Palestinians fled Israel in 1948 and still want to go back. They have a reason to fight. And the IRA had reasons to terrorize people for 100 years too. And the communists insurgencies defended people's rights for 100 years.

But resorting to terrorism only makes things worse.

 (this is why those countries don't want to resettle the Gaza refugees: they cause trouble for the guest country... and remember: Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies).

Finally, one of the under reported stories about this is the connection of drugs with terrorism.

Sigh.

 one of the untold stories of Marawi is the presence of Shabu (Meth) in that area. 2017 article.

THE recovery of P10-million worth of shabu from the house of a former mayor of Marawi City established the "close relation" between illegal drugs and the ongoing uprising in the country, Malacañang said on Saturday.

And 2023 article. says it's still going on there.

so what does shabu have to do with Gaza? 

Captogen smuggling thanks to Syria and Iran is destablizing the Middle East.

guess what the Hamas murderers were taking when they murdered innocent civilians? Captogen (a form of Meth)

there is a connection between criminal gangs, drugs, and terrorism. 

I suspect few Yanks watching the latest Denzel Washington Thriller noticed that the backstory of the local Mafia was about importing captogen and using a local winery to cover this smuggling.

Screen rant has an article about this: Equalizer 3’s Italian Mafia & The Real Camorra Syndicate Explained,,,, 

The movie accurately portrays the inner workings of the Camorra, including their involvement in drug trafficking, money laundering, and kidnapping. While the storyline is fictional, it aligns with real-life events, such as the seizure of a large shipment of Captagon pills from the Camorra by Italian government officials in 2020.

Sigh.

Health care workers, risking their lives to save others

Afghan health professionals, thousands of females among them are defying daily challenges to provide critical care https://t.co/CVXopGVLMP pic.twitter.com/Wg8Yi27Fqc

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 6, 2023

.............

LINK

Every day, millions face the grim reality of living with poor or no access to healthcare and food, putting them at risk of malnutrition and disease outbreaks. Women and girls bear a heavier burden as the rollback of their rights limits their access to healthcare, education and freedom of movement.

Yet, despite the ongoing crisis, Afghan health professionals – thousands of female workers among them – defy daily challenges to provide critical healthcare. With support from humanitarian agencies and donor partners, doctors, nurses, midwives, community health workers, vaccinators and others, the health workers bring life-saving care to millions of Afghans.

Stories below the fold

 Religious persecution.

In Afghanistan they hate everyone: Christians, Shiite Muslims, Sikhs, Ahmadis Muslims, Hindus.

And will kill you in the name of Allah for being an apostate. 

But religious persecution is not limited to Muslim countries:

The problem is that religious freedom concerns are often drowned out during debates about politics, economics, climate change and other issues in violent flashpoints around the world.

Consider northern Nigeria, where ISIS and Boko Haram continue to slaughter Christian farmers, or Hong Kong, where Communist Party threats are increasing against pro-democracy leaders, such as jailed Catholic media magnate Jimmy Lai and the retired Cardinal Joseph Zen.

but at least the Olympics are publicizing China's reeducation/persecution of their Uighar Muslim minorities. 

--------------------

 StrategyPage has a pithy summary of the Covid epidemic... lies, propaganda, and misinformation are noted in the essay.

such as why Vaccines don't seem to be working:

Another bit of misinformation was the development of covid19 vaccines. Covid19 is a rapidly mutating disease similar to influenza. While more stable viruses like smallpox and polio can protect potential victims with a vaccine, the flu and covid19 “vaccines” are actually temporary treatments called “antivirals.” These slow down the spread of the disease but cannot stop it like polio or smallpox vaccination.

and they note that the epidemiology of the disease was first recognized from the data from the cruise ship infections was analyzed:

The fat, asthmatic and elderly are at most risk.

And did China cover up the fact that they had 2 millon deaths?

The Olympics was supposed to be a propaganda triumph for China, showing how it could control the virus through their efficient state control. But then Omicron hit.

and Dr. C comments on Facebook correcting an esteemed medical journal. WTF? 

War War War War

 wtf is going on in the Ukraine vs Russia? 

USNI analysis it's about keeping the Ukraine out of NATO, which they see as the enemy threatening to encircle them, and also about intimidating Europe. And to make matters worse, it's about Turkey, a traditional enemy of Russia and a NATO member:

they link to this article.

Russia’s threats against Ukraine are more dangerous now because, ultimately, its public threats earlier this year failed. … First, it was a reminder to Washington of Moscow’s military power and forced dialogue with the Biden administration to clarify the U.S.-Russian relationship. Second, the buildup occurred just a month after Ukrainian President Zelensky decided to shut down three television channels controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of President Vladimir Putin. … The third factor explaining the timing of the spring buildup was Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan won with critical support from Turkey, which included Turkish officers operating the TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles that played such a crucial role.

Strategypage analyzes Russia vs her neighbors.

when the Ukraine became independent, there were a lot of Russian nukes left behind there. They agreed to give up these nukes if the west promised to defend them against Russia.

also note more is involved: Russian hackers, pipelines bringing natural gas to keep Europe warm in the winter, the trade routes in the northern Baltic area, -----------

 Up until 2014 Ukraine trusted Russia and the 1994 treaty. That is all gone and NATO nations, especially the new East European NATO members, will support Ukrainians against any Russian invasion, including support of Ukrainian resistance fighters in newly occupied areas. Putin could make a case for seizing Crimea but not so much Donbas and none at all for the rest of Ukraine. Were another Russian operation in Ukraine fail, Putin would lose much credibility inside Russia. He has already lost a lot of that because after 2014 Western economic sanctions pushed more and more Russians into poverty and convinced many Russians with exportable skills to move to the West. East European NATO members, especially the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Poland, Denmark and Germany have another reason to stand firm against Russia. They want to keep Russia from disrupting commerce in the Baltic, ..........

and the problem of the southern "stan" countries that worry about Islamic terrorism spreading there (from Afghanistan), and might chose China to defend them instead of their traditional helper in Russia.

Kazahkstan used to be a joke in the USA, but now it is another place war could start.

Nazarbayev saw this possibility early on and sought to avoid a successful popular uprising by having Kazakhstan join several economic and security agreements with Russia, and a few with China. Tokayev invoked the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) agreement. CSTO was formed in 2002 with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia agreeing to support each other in security emergencies. Within a week a CSTO peacekeeping force of 2,500 troops began arriving in Kazakhstan. Most of the CTTO forces were Russian and all of them were used to replace Kazak troops who were protecting economic and military installations.

oh well... Russia is weak, but it remembers it's old empire and empires tend to want to reform in today's post American world, where the Team America World Police got tired of being the scapegoat for European snobs. So I figure few Americans will be willing to send their sons to die for Hunter Biden's friends.

And no one wants to talk about it, but the woke has hit the military, so I suspect many will not be willing to join it. The latest? Trying to allow non bianary folk in the military, which means you could lose your job if you get his/her/their pronouns wrong.

Sheesh.

it takes competence not political correctness. and as wokeness hits medicine and the STEM, the USA is in danger of losing it's ability to do basic things. JPeterson on the destruction of the university system notes the problem.

It is an intellectual problem when those in charge don't know anything except PC history and ignore the rest of the story, because history and basic cultural knowledge gives insight into what is going on.

AustinBay explains why Russia wants a viable empire back

The common economic interests linking Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were a potential post-Cold War positive. Russia needed Ukraine's immense agricultural productivity." RUBK explained: "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube. RUBK is Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. The demographics, natural resources and economic capacities these four nations possess is a geostrategic formula for a global power.

and he also  notes how the hubris of the Biden administration led to the disasters of the Afghanistan withdrawal: there was a plan to do this, but hey, we know better than those with expertise in the matter.

sardonically  notes that the reason that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was botched is that no one bothered to read how to do it.

All the essential operational details (based on hard lessons learned) are laid out in a Joint Chiefs of Staff pamphlet titled Joint Publication 3-68. Anyone literate may read the "Joint Pub" on the internet, all seven chapters.

Sigh.

I hate to think of how these bozos plan to defend the Philippines (or Taiwan) against China. 

Probably send them a nasty letter.

Peace is breaking out all over: uh oh

 I have a lot of stupid opinions on the news, but I recognize most of this I might just be echoing what I read.

Yet there are some areas where I have first hand knowledge, and I will comment on those stories that are sort of below the fold, i.e. ignored in favor of propaganda and spin.

StrategyPage has their yearly summary of wars around the world. Read the whole thing (Slowly).

Overall things are a lot more peaceful than the headlines or Internet chatter would have you believe. Like most major trends, world peace just kind of sneaked up on everyone and a lot of people have not noticed. 

the most under reported story of the decade: a lot less violence and a lot fewer wars... and hey people are getting out of poverty in a big way. 

They also discuss the big problem of corruption, the covid epidemic, the problem of failed states, and why tribalism is one of the biggest problems for failed or failing states. 

And they then discuss a lot of countries that are in the news, giving background of the stories in the headlines.

and a lot of these problems are caused by corruption (yes, religion etc. is blamed, but often these rabid religious and communist zealots are rebelling against the corrupt officials who run their countries).

Here is a snippet of the Philippines section, discussing the economic problems and the inability to make nice with China who cheats.

But here is why Duterte continues with a 65percent approval rating:

Since elected president in 2016 Rodrigo Duterte did what most Filipinos wanted to reduce crime and drug violence. ....He did and his term-limited job as president ends in mid-2022.... Duterte presided over peace with Moslem separatists in the south and an end to leftist rebel movements...By 2020 Islamic terrorists and communist rebels were much less active because there were a lot fewer of them and there was much less popular support. Duterte may not be the solution to the many problems the country faces but he was the most radical, and promising, one to come along in decades. He continues to receive record high approval ratings from the voters even as local and foreign critics accuse him of atrocious behavior.

the CIA hates Duterte and the feeling is mutual: it's about the CIA getting a drug suspect out of jail in his Davao days, while hating Duterte for trying (yet alas failing) to make nice with China.  

 Yes. the PC foreign critics even gave a Nobel prize to a fake ex CNN journalist who set up her own (English) webpage with foreign money (forbidden by local law) much of it donated from sources that are suspected to be CIA fronts. In the meanwhile, brave local journalists who often write in local language papers or radio stations continue to be killed ( 3 in 2020, which is down from previous years), but these deaths are usually ignored (usually the murder for hire by businessmen or gov't officials who they dared to spill the beans on).... Remember, it took ten years but finally the slow prosecution of the (CIA Friendly) Arroyo allies in Manguinadao was settled in 2019, under Duterte's watch. Hello Garci is the background of that scandal.

It's the corruption, stupid. Duterte has a corruption problem, but again it has to be looked at in comparison to the rest of them (Lolo would frequently say of politicians here: They're all crooks).

Sigh.

the bad news is that it doesn't look like Biden will defend the takeover of the West Philippine sea, or probably even try to defend Taiwan. Yes, Biden is a good man, but he is weak.

Mr. Chamberlain call your office. Winston is warmongering again.

Sigh.

China finds enemies everywhere: Australia, Alaska, and... K Pop boys?

 A few days ago, I noted that China has sent it's fleet into the Alaskan waters of the Aleutian islands within the US economic zone as a retaliation to the US insisting that the West Philippine sea lanes should not be blocked by illegal man made Chinese "islands" there.

And I pointed out how this is a new "salami" move (grab a little piece of somewhere and then stop but don't retreat when their aggression is resisted). And I tried to put it into the context of not just geopolitics, but the Chinese illegal overfishing in that area, sending a message if the Governor of Alaska grows some balls and tries to stop them, the Chinese fleet will "defend" their "innocent" poachers.

But as China is trying to bully Biden (and take over the mineral resources of Afghanistan, which are now in the hands of their ally, Pakistan's Taliban) there are a lot of other people China is targeting as the enemy:

StrategyPage has an essay that lists a lot of these issues, including Australian trade war. 

keep that trade war in mind when you read about the Philippines, because they have punished the Philippines in the past by blocking agricultural exports to China. 

The Chinese control the Philippine economy. Most are Filipinos (AKA Chinoy) but some have ties to China, and this is well known that they could become an internal source of destablization. Indeed, there were several pogroms against Chinese ethnics in the last century (e.g. Indonesia and VietNam) which is why the local Chinese community is worried they are being tainted with the idea they might be cooperating with the Chinese triads (mobs) behind the drug infestation here.

Ignore the propaganda about those poor dead drug pushers. Drugs harm families, and druggies kill people.  The human rights types don't mourn our neighbors who got shot by drug addicts in home invasion robberies (3 in the last few years but only one since Duterte took over). And it is now safer to go out without worrying I'll be kidnapped.

But the peace may not last: the Manila Standard editorial notes that the reason the cops are finding huge stores of drugs is that the drug lords are preparing for next year's election, when they assume the new president will please the international "Human rights for thugs" groups. stop the killing of all those innocent death dealing drug pushers, and let them go back to work selling shabu (meth) etc to the masses.

China Triads (cartels) are behind a lot of the drugs destroying this part of the world. (Rappler article), and China is behind the narcotic overdose epidemic in the USA too, but hey don't bother to pressure China to arrest the guy in Wuhan who is behind that epidemic.

now add Afghanistan's heroin to the mix: this goes to Russia, the nearby countries, and Europe... 

 StrategyPage notes Russia and the nearby former USSR republics nearby are worried: not only does heroin destroy people's lives and families, but now with the Taliban in control, there is a worry that the drug smugglers will be joined by Islamic terrorists.

China's aggressive tactics in the West Philippine sea continue: the ultimate goal is to block the shipping routes to Japan Korea and Russia, and also to steal the fish and the petroleum resources there.

The possible problem with China blocking the shipping lanes has gotten some publicity, but you know, a lot of Asian internet traffic goes thru that area too . Wikipedia article and map:

 J.P.Lon~commonswiki 

I know about this, because in  2006 an earthquake cut the internet cable and we were offline for weeks, and then very slow. But it also affected India, who found their major link with the US was also affected.

 2010, an earthquake south of Taiwan again caused trouble, but not as serious.

So if China invades Taiwan, it could shut down the internet and harm not only East Asia but India.

So what does all of this have to do with the K Pop Boys?

I had read that China has "Canceled" several bit stars, but now has started pushing masculinity. 

You can read the whole story on Global Voices: The construction of Chinese masculinity: Sissies will ruin the nation.

Again, the StrategyPage essay points out the enemy:

The CCP believes it should decide what foreign customs and inventions are acceptable for its glorious New China and which are poisonous. This now includes K-Pop and its use of boy bands, full of cute young men that dance and sing in a way that creates fans world-wide. ,,,. The CCP is believed to be using all these headline worthy assaults on foreign culture to distract Chinese from growing economic problems.

Village People, eat your heart out...

 

Economics or superheroes?

 my grandson was into Japanese superheroes, and here we have an entire TV station that shows these cartoons.

Alas, they are long and hard for me to get into them, and a lot of them are like the recent hit movie, Demon Slayer, where the plot is killing monsters.

Ah, but what do you think of a manga called How a Realist Hero Rebuilt the Kingdom?

The plot? a small country needs to pay it's debt to a smaller country, but is given the option to use their magic power to summon a hero to destroy their common enemy. Since they don't have the money, they do the ritual... but they do it incorrectly and summon a student accountant by mistake.

who instead of deciding which magic sword will help him in the battle has a meeting

he then spends a lot of time looking at the books (finding a lot of corruption), 

Next step?

selling unneeded treasures owned by the king. Putting policies intact that will mean enough food will be planted to feed the people. Making the forests productive by thinning the trees and selling lumber. Asking a local gourmet to popularize new foods for people to eat. 

Oh yes, and of course this is a manga, so romance and fighting of course.

With my limited attention span, I probably won't get around to watching the entire manga (on line here to read).

But I find it interesting that it mixes magic with the very real problems of the world... 

the real skills needed in a country are not superhero skills but those of economics. 

Which is why Goldman Sachs has the ten thousand women initiative to teach and help local entrepeneurs like Joy, who I mentioned in a previous blogpost. 

Because give a man a fish, he eats for a day. Teach him to fish (and get him a loan to buy his own boat) and he feeds his family for decades.

Which is why I, a person who has worked as a missionary and in poor areas in what would be called charity work, am so angry when the Pope goes around saying live simply and help the poor.  

Saying things like that imply he only wants to preach to the upper middle class in rich countries.

Here, maybe better advice would be to invest your money in an industry that gives jobs to the unemployed instead of building chapels to celebrate the environment.

Maybe, even, you should teach the ten commandments to all those corrupt Catholic politicians. 

Here in the Philippines, corruption and nepotism are limiting the economic growth... so one tenth of the population work overseas, either as temporary OFW or as immigrants.

In other words, the Philippine economy is held up by wages sent back to families by their OFW, but a smarter country would keep them and find a way for them to use their skills to make the country rich.

Well, the Philippines has improved a lot in recent years thanks to Duterte whacking a lot of drug dealers. When he took over, there was danger of the Philippines becoming a narco state, something often ignored by the "human rights" NGOs.

We are like an old Jeepney: falling apart, slow but we get there.

Finally, I'd like to add that the press seems full of breathless (and admiring stories) about the Taliban's successes.

But I wonder: how will they run the place?

I saw Mozambique fall into mass starvation when the communists threw out all those with an education as colonialist exploiters. But then the place collapsed. 

I saw Zimbabwe go downhill and Mugabe persecuting not just the white farmers but the educated class who were terrorized by his green bomber gangs, so many fled to England or South Africa to be safe and to support their families, while Mugabe and his minions lived high off the hog during a major famine.

I left Liberia shortly before the coup that overthrew President Tolbert took place, and Sargent Doe took over. 

Someone from the American embassy tried to advise Sargent Doe about the problems of running the country, and explained what would happen if these things weren't taken care of: "Country Go Kaput"

So unless another country wants to go in and take the place over and run things, Afghanistan could very well go "kaput", meaning hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into Pakistan, Iran and other nearby countries, along with their criminal elements and heroin trade connections.

So who is running things in Afghanistan?

Russia?  (in the north)

The Turks? (running the airport)

The Chinese? (planning to take over their mineral resources, but since they probably won't hire locals to run the mines, this will mainly help the corrupt politicians).

Remember, there have been a drought in that area, and a lot of hunger in the remote villages this year could mean mass starvation and more refugees.

so the Taliban government can take all their weapons and shout in front of the cameras, but will they use their trucks and jeeps to take food to their villages? 

and in the capital: Who will keep the water running, clean up the garbage, keep the electricity on, keep the gas stations supplied, and of course stop the looters and criminals who will quickly start attacking normal people?

Will they end up selling the weapons for money? If so, that money, just like aid money, will probably go into the pockets of the corrupt leaders, not pay the salaries of experts to actually run these vital industries.

Then there is covid. Who will take care of the sick?

Who will get in supplies, especially when covid or more common disease like Dengue, dysentary, measles etc hit?

As I had mentioned in a previous post, two of the Filipinos who came back from Afghanistan were with Doctors without Borders, meaning they are leaving too... And of course the usual suspects (Christian churches who help out in disasters) will be forbidden.

So yes, I think Biden made a mistake in not withdrawing properly (strategic withdrawal is a skill that many civilians don't know about).

But the dirty little secret is that Americans have done a bit of building up the infrastructure, including educating people to run things, but without a culture that allows the growth of civil society, things will go to hell.

and outsiders, even those with the best intention, can't do that.

--------------------

update:

StrategyPage has an article on when extremists took over part of Iraq and tried to make it into a 7th century utopia.

Getting electricity, water and sanitation networks operating was a priority but crippled by lack of supplies (especially fuel) and spare parts as well as people qualified to repair, maintain or operate these utilities.

using foreigners was not done because it was't Islamic, so they tried to get modern Moslem workers from other countries. 

Few qualified foreign Moslems arrived and the result was intermittent water supplies, unreliable sanitation systems and lots of people using portable generators for power or just living in the dark like their 7th century ancestors....

and who took care of the sick?

the collapse of the medical care system has left most people with few useful options if they got sick or injured. ISIL considers such misfortunes “the will of God '' and complainers are regarded as heretics.

all of this while the leaders stole everything in site and laundered it with the help of Turkish and other international banks, of course.

Look for a similar thing to happen in Afghanistan. 

Who is funding US foreign policy

 This blogpost from the US Naval Institute discusses the problem of think tanks:

Not only are a few of them influencing US policies by providing most of the information to congress, but there is a question who is funding them.

They note Adm McMaster resigned because of the Koch brothers funding about a report that said human rights violations should be ignored, but somehow no one resigned over foreign countries who give oodles of money to think tanks to influence their reports, some of which go against US interests.

A small number of think tanks dominate the witness table, and they happen to be institutions that are particularly opaque about their funders. Four think tanks accounted for about one-third of all expert witnesses at the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the past two Congresses, … …three (of the) think tanks most frequently invited to House Foreign Affairs Committee hearings provide incomplete, or no, information about their funding.

It is, of course, an old problem: they also cite this Seattle Times article from 2014. that cited the NYT article complaining about foreign countries (mainly Europe and the Middle East) doing this.

the Wash FreeBeacon reported China's funding back in 2018.

and the Chinese People's daily complained that some American think tanks are making baseless charges of human rights violations about the Uighars and Tibet against China. of course.

as for the Philippines, I suspect a lot of politicians and news media sites are getting rich from both the USA and Chinese sources.

Rappler has an article about ABS-CBN being used to promote Chinese Philippine friendship. But Rappler once accepted funds from a guy who was suspected to be CIA connected, so although they are accurate, they do tend to hate Duterte and China.

as Lolo used to say: They're all crooks.

as for the USA... sounds like Trumpieboy might have stirred up the bees nest when he started outing such things in the FBI/CIA etc. Yes, he lies, but so do they.

Hunter, call your office. Even MSNBC is finding your laptop interesting.=====================

update (July 1)

Austin Bay on Chinese buying influence in the USA.

and goes into details about Hikvision lobbying and the Chinese corruption of WHO that kept the world in the dark so the Wuhan virus could get everyone sick.

China continues to steal the Philippine resources.

 Strategypage has a nice summary of Chinese aggression against the Philippines.

For China the South China Sea campaign is mainly about internal Chinese politics. China presents the South China Sea operation to Chinese as a necessary effort to regain control over lost (to Western imperialists) territory and secure China’s economic future. That’s a lie but so far China has sold it internally to Chinese eager to regain lost glory. 

China realizes it cannot afford an actual war over the South China Sea, because that would most definitely disrupt Chinese foreign trade and risk permanent damage to China ...

While the South China Sea combat is non-lethal, the economic damage to other nations with legal claims to portions of the South China Sea is very real. As this shoving match escalates, other major trading nations, especially the United States, Japan and South Korea, as well as more distant industrialized nations, are lending military support. While everyone is under orders to not open fire (unless facing a lethal threat) the risk of the shoving match turning into a shooting match increases.

and then there is an ongoing cyberwar going on. 

TimeOfIndia article from 2016 notes it was going on back then.

AustinBay notes: China is pushing 5G all over the world, and the one who controls the internet controls the world.

5G "next generation" wireless communication systems are an information battlespace. 5G has the ability to connect cellphones, the internet, the internet of things -- all digital devices, which could include controls on a hydroelectric dam (SCADA, in the lingo). What if a terrorist or a saboteur were to open the floodgates of a major dam in, say, Egypt, or, heaven forbid, California? If the saboteur were a Chinese agent, would this be an act of war waged by China? The dam scenario isn't hyperbolic. Western defense and intelligence services believe equipment and software provided by Huawei and other Chinese companies are potentially covert weapons. Attack example: The controlling power taps a keypad or activates an embedded "hidden trigger" and -- well, the Colonial Pipeline shipping gas to the U.S. southeast shuts down. Or Californians drown. China's shady tech can cause grievous economic damage and seed social disruption on a nationwide or even continental scale.

We have 5G antennas in our area (Kuya, worried about health problems related to 5G, refused to let them put one on our fields, but hey, lots of other folks need money so said yes).

Sigh

China's tactics are stealth and slow "Push, hold and stop and pretend that's all they want", and this is being done against VietNam, the Philippines, India, and Japan.

If you are a student of history, all this might sound familiar:

hmm... can you say: Sudetanland, children?

or sing along with Winnie the Pooh:

Of course, now that Biden appears to be a weakling, one simply assumes nothing will be done, unless Korea and Japan move in.

Duterte has been burned by China in many ways. He was suspicious of the US because "human rights" activists got GMA out of jail and went bonkers over the drug war (where a lot of the murders counted by them weren't drug war related: True: Some were from bad cops but a lot were crude justice by cops and some were pay back murders by victims who never got justice).

But how deep is the Chinese influence in the Philippine government? I have no idea. But remember the proverb: In the Philippines, bribes are taken over the table, under the table and with the table.

So when one reads of how someone in the DOH just never got around to signing off paper work so the Pfizer vaccine could be delivered in January, it does make one wonder.

Especially since hey, lots of lousy Chinese vaccine was being pushed. 

One small problem: a lot of folks are refusing to get the Chinese vaccine, even when the gov't is bribing them with a gift of free rice, because they are waiting for the good vaccine.

from the Inquirer:

I should note that both our lawyer and Joy's father got the Chinese vaccine, because it was the only one available, while I waited for the western vaccine which only arrived last week in our town.

-------

Our granddaughter should be arriving in a week or two from the US: She has had the vaccine, but will probably have to stay in Quarantine in Manila for a week anyway. 

Sigh.

in other news: Another day, another tropical storm causing rain and floods.

Actually this is good for the farmers, who will now be able to plow and prepare the fields for sowing.

as for our town: The traffic is a lot heavier in the last two weeks. So things might start opening up.

gee, they insist they need charity but they can afford missiles

 Things must be serious in the Middle East, because the gov't here is arranging to evacuate some of our OFW from Israel. But this article mentions only 300, and I believe there are 30 thousand Filipinos there, so although the gov't is making contingency plans if things get worse, they are not planning a full evacuation.

Joy reports that one of her friends heard from her daughter there: She is not planning to return home, but does note that the government warned people to go to their shelters when the siren hits.

A lot of the news stories imply Israel is the bad guy of course, because they retaliated after being hit by thousands of missiles.

So who is paying for the missiles? Is it an Iranian proxy war, so they were put there by Iran who has openly swore to destroy Israel for the last 30 years, or did the locals buy them with all that foreign aid money given to them by various western countries and charities?

I don't know, But here is Strategy Page's take on what's going on.

.....

If I post a lot of stuff from StrategyPage here, it is because they get things right about countries that I happen to know about, but that the press, especially in the USA, often distort the story, usually out of ignorance of cultural nuances rather than bias.

as for the Middle East: It's not just Israel. Here they discuss why Greece is sending stuff to Saudi to help protect them against missile attacks from Iran's proxies there (read Houthi rebels in Yemen, a group that makes the Taliban look liberal, but thanks to Iran's sophisticated propaganda network, are usually portrayed as the victims here.).

and like China, who is using their ships to block fishing (with a "wink wink" to all and sundry that they are now able to block passage of civilian ships in the West Philippine sea), the Iranians are busy building ships that could stop shipping there.

President Obama tried to make nice with Iran, but they tricked him. So Trumpie boy reestablished sanctions and pulled aid from their proxies in Gaza etc. But now Biden is trying to make nice with them again. Of course, instead of seeing this as a way to grasp at peace and help their own people (the Iranians have been badly hit by the WuhanFlu), they saw it as a message they can "do their thing" without the cop on the beat (i.e. Team America World Police) getting in their way.

Sigh. 

Don't ask me. 

We are still in partial shutdown, and Manila is in strict shutdown, but the good news is that the number of new cases has fallen. 

The bad news? The Indian varient is here.

Sigh.