Friday, July 15, 2016

the good news of the day

BBC: Don't worry about Zika: In three years the epidemic will stop because everyone will have gotten it. It is called "herd immunity": If most people are immune, it means the disease won't spread.

ah but it will return in ten years or so when there are enough new people, mainly kids, to let the epidemic spread.

This assumes that, unlike Dengue, you get permanent immunity after getting the disease. And then there is a question if having had Dengue makes you get more symptoms than normal.

And then there is the question if the disease will hide in animals to reinfect humans.

Ironically, if you spray mosquitoes to keep the disease down, you might slow down the infection rate in the population, meaning it will take longer to get herd immunity.

Of course, maybe if you do it correctly you might stop the spread of the disease too.

Although Zika infection is largely mild, with most people having no symptoms, it is known to cause microcephaly - babies born with undersized heads.

but so far most studies suggest this occurs in one percent of pregnancies.

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