un fellahs: There is an election coming...

we have an election coming up in early May. Our province is known as the wild west of the Philippines, because election related violence is common.

There was again a covenant to no become involved in violence. One hopes they keep it.

The farmers are hurting because of the low price they are getting for this rice harvest (thanks partly to imports). Hunger season is coming up (the time when you run out of money from the previous harvest to buy food, but the next harvest isn't ready yet). So this could also influence the election.

in other news, the urban educated elite and those who take their opinions from the USA/CIA/human rights organizations are rejoicing about the arrest of Duterte for human rights violations by the ICC...

Hey, DOGE, did any of that USAID money go to the groups that  pressured the Philippines to get Duterte arrested? Place conspiracy theory here (part of the CIA war against him, because of his pro Chinese stance, and so maybe Marcos got him arrested because he is sucking up to Trumpieboy to get more military aid since China is now threatening to take over Palawan) ...

  But there is another point of view that maybe you need to check out. The grass roots demonstrations by the Filipino version of the deplorables. 

 

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 an estimated 100 thousand demonstrated for him in Davao, his native city.

Remember: The war against drugs was popular because the average person saw how the crime and drugs harmed people.

 And he was friendly with the Muslim minorities and to the NPA (communist militants) who although might not be popular right now, do represent the repressed in rural areas.

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The timing of Duterte's arrest was bad, because a lot of locals see his arrest right before a major election was more about feuds between the Marcos and Duterte clans than about human rights abuses.  

this is how Grok answered this question

The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on March 11, 2025, and his subsequent transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for crimes against humanity related to his "war on drugs" is likely to have a significant impact on the upcoming May 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines.

While it’s impossible to predict the exact outcome with certainty, several key factors and dynamics suggest how this event could shape the electoral landscape. Duterte’s arrest has intensified the political rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos families, two of the country’s most powerful dynasties. Once allies in the 2022 election—where Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. won the presidency and Sara Duterte, Rodrigo’s daughter, became vice president—their relationship has since deteriorated into a bitter feud.

The arrest, executed under Marcos Jr.’s administration in cooperation with Interpol, has been framed by Duterte supporters as a politically motivated move to weaken their clan ahead of the midterms.

Sara Duterte, the current vice president, has accused the government of "kidnapping" her father and surrendering him to "foreign powers," a narrative that could rally their base by portraying the family as victims of persecution.

The midterms are critical for both families. For the Dutertes, the elections are a chance to secure Senate seats for allies who could protect Sara from her looming impeachment trial, scheduled shortly after the vote, and bolster her potential presidential run in 2028.

Rodrigo Duterte himself is a candidate for mayor of Davao City, a family stronghold. Despite his detention, the Philippine Commission on Elections (Comelec) has indicated that he remains a candidate, and his name will appear on the ballot. If he wins, questions arise about how he could govern from The Hague, potentially leading to legal challenges or a power vacuum in Davao that could weaken the family’s grip there.

Public sentiment is a major wildcard. Duterte retains significant grassroots support, especially among poorer communities who credit his tough-on-crime stance for improving safety, despite the estimated 6,000 to 30,000 deaths linked to his drug war.

His arrest has sparked protests in the Philippines and among supporters abroad, with some framing it as an attack on national sovereignty due to the ICC’s involvement.

This could translate into a sympathy vote for Duterte-backed candidates, particularly from his PDP-Laban party, as Filipinos have historically rallied behind figures perceived as political martyrs.

Conversely, victims’ families and human rights advocates see the arrest as a triumph of justice, which could energize an opposing bloc of voters supporting Marcos-aligned candidates or progressive groups like Akbayan.

The timing—less than two months before the campaign period begins—amplifies its electoral significance.

Marcos Jr. has distanced himself from direct ICC cooperation, emphasizing compliance with Interpol obligations, possibly to mitigate backlash from Duterte loyalists. However, his administration’s role in the arrest could alienate voters still loyal to Duterte, especially in regions like Mindanao, where the Dutertes hold sway.

Meanwhile, the arrest might bolster Marcos’s image among international allies and urban middle-class voters who favor accountability, though this group is smaller than Duterte’s populist base.

Sara Duterte’s political future hangs in the balance. Her impeachment, tied to allegations of corruption and an alleged assassination plot against Marcos, could be influenced by the midterm results. If Duterte allies win key Senate seats, they might block her removal, preserving her eligibility for 2028. However, Rodrigo’s absence from the campaign trail—he was a charismatic figurehead for the family—could hinder their momentum, leaving Sara and her brother Sebastian, the current Davao mayor, to carry the torch under strained circumstances.

In summary, Duterte’s arrest could polarize the electorate, boosting his allies through a sympathy wave while strengthening Marcos’s position among those who prioritize law and order or international credibility. The outcome will likely hinge on how each side leverages the narrative—victimhood versus justice—and mobilizes voters in a deeply divided nation. The midterms may not only reflect the arrest’s immediate fallout but also set the stage for the 2028 presidential race.

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In other news, the US sent a big shot to assure the Philippines that they would back us up against Chinese aggression. And a couple of Chinese spies who were using drones to take photos of military bases were arrested.

  StrategyPage report also notes:

Chinese intelligence has much to observe in the Philippines, as 2024 saw numerous infrastructure improvements, including new roads and upgrades to airports and shipping facilities, after decades of minimal development. These differences were noticeable to most Filipinos....

Internal security has improved. After decades of effort, the government has reduced or eliminated leftist and Islamic rebellions. Most Filipinos are now more concerned about endemic corruption, widespread drug addiction, and the resulting economic crisis than about these insurgencies.

While China's naval presence in traditionally Filipino waters represents a growing threat, most citizens view domestic issues like drugs, corruption, Islamic terrorism, and unemployment as more pressing.

Since his election in 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte addressed these concerns by reducing crime and drug violence.

yes. Being safe to walk down the street without fear of being kidnapped, or being able to answer the door without fear of a home invasion does make a difference.