Bird Flu: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

IN my earlier post about the dangers of Bird Flu being spread thru the Haj, I had a post script noting that maybe the numbers were being hyped...

Here is a longer article from ABC that says the same thing:

There is one glaring problem with this purported mortality rate of more than 50 percent, however: It is based on those cases that have been reported, and this leads to an almost textbook case of sample bias. You wouldn't estimate the percentage of alcoholics by focusing your research on bar patrons, nor would you estimate the percentage of sports fans by hanging around sports stadiums. Why do something analogous when estimating the avian-flu mortality percentage?

Who goes to hospitals and emergency rooms but people who are very sick? Who doesn't go to hospitals and emergency rooms but people who are not so very sick?

Given how many people in Southeast Asia deal with chickens and other poultry in a hands-on way, some unknown, but likely quite large number of them have contracted avian H5N1 flu over the last several years. Its symptoms are many times indistinguishable from those of the normal flu. Some no doubt have died from it, but the majority are likely to have recovered. The people who have recovered from the avian flu don't make it into the mortality-rate calculations, which are, as a consequence, likely to be skewed substantially upward.

The NYTIMES link HERE

I lived in Oklahoma before retiring to the Philippines...one of the major problems in summertime was Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever...which has a mortality of 25% untreated and 9% treated.....you see, the blood test doesn't turn positive until the second week. So we would treat any "FUO" (fever of unknown origin) with Tetracycline...

The problem was that we also saw Lyme disease and Erlicheosis...and viruses. Bad news: They all have similar symptoms. Good news: They all respond to Tetracycline. Bad news: Tetracycline isn't used in kids and pregnant women because it combines with calcium and you end up with green teeth...

Summary: we probably treated a dozen cases a year clinically, but in the three years I worked there, we had exactly one case with a rash, and one or two positive blood tests a year...we didn't hospitalize anyone, but one of our patients (not seen by us) ended up very sick in the hospital nearby...

BUT if you do a blood test for antibodies on the population, you find most cases are symptomatic

LINK

Well, at least you don't have to worry about RMSF being spread at the Haj: It is spread by ticks...

But then, there is this case where a Lone Star Tick managed to make it to Ireland...

Damn Texans...it's Bush's Fault...