Background: West Philippine Sea

Austin Bay's essay on what is going on.

With good reason the Philippines contests China's claims to its territory. In 2012, Scarborough Shoal (in the Spratly Islands) was a reef, a "sea feature" well inside long-recognized Filipino territory.

The shoal is about 250 kilometers from the large inhabited Filipino island of Palawan. It is 1,200 kilometers from China, Bullying its weak Filipino neighbor, China seized the area.

In May 2013, a Chinese general said China would secure its South China Sea territorial claims by wrapping them with ships, air patrols and garrisons, the military "layers" akin to protective cabbage leaves. Cabbage has sprouted around Scarborough Shoal.

There are now reports of Chinese "developmental activity" in the area -- meaning preparation to construct an island. It is a slow but steady invasion. Chinese companies create "territorial facts." Using dredges and lots of concrete, construction teams turn what geographers call "features" (rocks, shoals, etc.) into man-made islands with bases. It's literally concrete nationalist territorial expansion. China's claims are as ridiculous as they are enormous

a future war: and they got away with it because Presdent Obama stopped the Philippines from opposing them, saying take it to the courts instead. We won, but who will force China out?

Duterte is called "anti American" but he simply doesn't trust the US, partly because of the interference in the Philippines social issues and problems, but also because under treaties, the US was supposed to defend the Philippines from aggression, and under Obama they refused to do this. So Duterte knows nothing short of a shooting war will get out the Chinese, so is trying to "ride the tiger" and milk them for all the money they will send (while destroying their drug dealers and smugglers who are bribing our politicians and destroying local industry.). I say smugglers, because it's not just Shabu or drugs: Illegal onion imports has bankrupted local farmers here, illegal logging often sends the lumber to China, and counterfeit medicines mean you can't tell if your blood pressure medicine or antibiotics will work.

As for the West Philippine Sea: for us, it is only stealing our natural gas/petroleum, fishing areas, and destroying the local ecology. So what else is new?

where it is really important geopolitically is to Japan and Korea: block these shipping lanes and it means a long detour south to go around to east of the Philippines (and China is threatening to take over some shoals to the west of Luzon too).

China is now demanding that foreign ships, like the USS Hopper, receive permission to pass through the region. The U.S., however, objects. Washington regards freedom of navigation (air and sea right of passage) as a vital global interest and actively opposes maritime territorial claims that intrude on recognized international shipping lanes.

oil routes

they are also pushing around VietNam, which has actually fought back. Vietnam was once Chinese territory, so they know they have to fight for their country.

But this is part of the idea of monopolizing trade: and you can see how they are slowly threatening India on the sea, and in the long term, India is a threat: If for no other reason then in the long term China has a major demographic problem, and India does not.

related item: China is militarizing the area 

January 21, 2018: China has begun building a multi-sensor system for obtaining constant data on the precise location of surface and submarine vessels in the South China Sea. Surface surveillance would be carried out by a constellation of ten remote sensing satellites so that the South China Sea is under constant surveillance. Satellites at an altitude of 600 kilometers would be equipped with SAR (synthetic aperture radar) and digital cameras. A typical SAR can produce photo quality images at different resolutions. At medium resolution (3 meters) the radar covers an area 40x40 kilometers. Low resolution (20 meters) covers 100x100 kilometers.

This takes care of surface ships (including diesel-electric subs when surfaced). Since 2010 China has been experimenting with such an array, using three satellites moving in formation over the western Pacific. China announced that the first South China Sea satellite will be launched in 2019 and all will be in orbit by 2025. By 2030 the Chinese Navy will have 260 ships, 30 percent more than the American fleet. Those satellites and the rest of the sensors will add to that numerical superiority and make the South China Sea a very dangerous place for anyone the Chinese do not want there.

Oh: by the way: The Philippines now calls this area the West Philippine sea. Please adjust your vocabulary.