Tuesday, September 25, 2018

He said she said: Beyond the hysteria

The NYTimes is asking people to relate stories of their sexual escapades in high school and colleges.

They will then presumably presume this survey is significant: but it's not, since anecdotes don't give you an idea of what is going on, and of course, people will lie and make up stories.

If you want hard data, check the CDC data: Youth Risk Surveillance survey which I cited below to put the pedophilia crisis into perspective.

so what are today's teenagers actually doing?

Nationwide, 45.3% of students had had sexual contact with only the opposite sex, 1.6% had had sexual contact with only the same sex, 5.3% had had sexual contact with both sexes, and 47.8% had had no sexual contact (Supplementary Table 5).
So yes, there are virgins in high school.
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and yes, date rape happens

Nationwide, 7.4% of students had ever been physically forced to have sexual intercourse when they did not want to (Supplementary Table 34). The prevalence of having been forced to have sexual intercourse was higher among female (11.3%) than male (3.5%) students; higher among white female (11.2%), black female (11.7%), and Hispanic female (11.2%) than white male (3.3%), black male (3.4%), and Hispanic male (3.6%) students

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and date rape rates varies according to your sexual orientation:

Analyses based on the question ascertaining sexual identity indicated that nationwide, 5.4% of heterosexual students; 21.9% of gay, lesbian, and bisexual students; and 13.1% of not sure students had ever been physically forced to have sexual intercourse when they did not want to (Supplementary Table 34). .

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date rape episodes vary widely in different areas:

Analyses of state and large urban school district data indicated that across 34 states, the overall prevalence of having been forced to have sexual intercourse ranged from 5.7% to 19.2% across state surveys (median: 8.3%) (Supplementary Table 35). Across 20 large urban school districts, the prevalence ranged from 6.8% to 11.9% (median: 9.2%)

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and a lot of kids are assaulted or forced into sexual situations short of rape. Note that this analyzed only those who were dating, so cut the percentage in half to see the actual percentage of all kids.

Among the 68.3% of students nationwide who dated or went out with someone during the 12 months before the survey,¶ 6.9% had been forced to do “sexual things” (e.g., kissing, touching, or being physically forced to have sexual intercourse) they did not want to do one or more times during the 12 months before the survey by someone they were dating or going out with (i.e., sexual dating violence) (Supplementary Table 38).
and the rate varies according to who you are dating, i.e. heterosexual vs homosexual vs not sure;
Analyses based on the question ascertaining sexual identity indicated that nationwide, among the students who dated or went out with someone during the 12 months before the survey, 5.5% of heterosexual students; 15.8% of gay, lesbian, and bisexual students; and 14.1% of not sure students had experienced sexual dating violence
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so kids are all promiscuous, right? uh, not really:

Nationwide, 9.7% of students had had sexual intercourse with four or more persons during their life (Supplementary Table 137). The prevalence of having had sexual intercourse with four or more persons was higher among male (11.6%) than female (7.9%) students; 

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but what about normal intercourse? a lot of statistics ask who has had intercourse at any time, but the actual number who are routinely sexually active is lower than you think

Nationwide, 28.7% of students had had sexual intercourse with at least one person during the 3 months before the survey (i.e., currently sexually active) ,,,,The prevalence of being currently sexually active was higher among 10th-grade (24.9%), 11th-grade (35.3%), and 12th-grade (44.3%) than 9th-grade (12.9%) students;

This pretty well agrees with what I saw in practice: younger teenagers are at great risk for problems, including pregnancy and STDs, and that group continues to have problems:

but a lot of more mature teenagers are having intercourse with regular partners. Since in my day, I have had friends who married at age 16 to 18, I figure this is just the same behavior as their grand parents, except they don't marry nowadays.

In summary:

 there is also a subgroup of teenagers at risk for sexual coercion.

You just can't arrest every time this is done, but school and public health authorities need to address this (as do churches).

This behavior to be addressed, but it is not universal.

By the way: The survey also has statistics on bullying, threats of violence, kids carrying guns, using alcohol and tobacco and drugs, were depressed, thought about suicide, and if they ate their veggies.

 Nationwide, 26.6% of students had eaten vegetables (green salad, potatoes [not counting French fries, fried potatoes, or potato chips], carrots, or other vegetables) two or more times per day during the 7 days before the survey

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