Tuesday, October 02, 2018

the big story Not the income gap but the growing Middle Class

The UKMail quotes a report on the world's growing middle class.

A new global majority: Half the world is now middle class or richer, study finds
For the first time, the majority of the world’s population is not poor or vulnerable to poverty and the middle class accounts for the globe's largest economic group
As of September, an estimated 3.8 billion people are now middle class or rich Asia is driving middle class growth, as companies have increased productivity and improved manufacturing technology to become more profitable over time
A majority - nearly 3.6 billion - of those are strictly middle class, defined as households that spend $11-110 per person per day, and the number is growing The middle class are on track to reach 5.3 billion people worldwide by 2030

Roughly an half the world's population is middle class or rich while the other half is poor or vulnerable to becoming poor, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institute

A more nuanced approach to what this means can be found here at Rappler. those in ultimate poverty are few, but most of the "middle class" are actually lower middle class, which the Brookings list as "vulnerable" meaning they could easily slip back into poverty:


In 2012, the income share of the middle class can be estimated at about a third (32.2 percent) of total household income in the country.

Figure 1. Distribution of Households and Shares of Total Household Income by Income Groups, 2012

more here at the Manila Bulletin.

it's more subtle than this: Because that "vulnerable" group is now aiming to improve their lives via education and working, even if it means they have to work overseas to get a job.

so people expect their children's lives will be better than their grandparents.

We see this at the farm, where the older generation is selling their farm land, because land reform meant they sent their kids to school, and their kids are no longer poor, and don't want to work on small farms, but prefer to work in Manila or overseas.

the real hope is that if Duterte continues to make things safer, and is able to cut down on the rate of corruption that more foreign investment will mean local jobs, so parents can find jobs at home to support their families.


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