The four horsemen: War and anarchy and ebola

Ebola continues to spread in Central Africa.

A lot of things are being done to try to stop the epidemic: Short summary of the wars and other problems in the area on StrategyPage includes this about the disease:

December 1, 2018: In eastern Congo (North Kivu and Ituri provinces), the Ebola virus epidemic continues but so far has remained in Congo despite the fact that the infected areas border Rwanda, Uganda and South Sudan. So far the two Congolese provinces have had from nearly 500 Ebola cases. Approximately 250 people have died (though some sources contend the figure is higher).

In mid-November, over 160 patients in eastern Congo were treated with experimental drugs that had promising results in initial testing. The medical jargon is a bit foreboding: “investigational therapeutics under a protocol called Monitored Emergency Use of Unregistered and Investigational Interventions.”

Using drugs that have not received full approval is risky. However, the epidemic is risky. Since June 2018 doctors have been allowed to treat high-risk Ebola patients in Congo with experimental therapies. A Congolese medical ethics committee approved the drugs for “compassionate use” (a “last resort” for patients at high risk of dying or patients definitely exposed to the virus).

An experimental vaccine has also been tested. In May 2018 a vaccine test was conducted in the Congolese town of Mbandaka (northwest Equateur province). The vaccine had previously been tested in Guinea. Health officials believe the vaccine may have curbed an “explosive increase in cases” in Congo. In early November 2018, Uganda began vaccinating health workers in case “cross-border transmission” of the virus occurred. Stay tuned. (Austin Bay)

and more bad news: the WAPost reports: Because of the war, the CDC has removed their personnel from the area. But the WHO remains there.

Also, kidnapping for ransom is not unknown in trouble spots.

Foreign Policy has an article here about the crisis.

The signs of a coming Ebola crisis are mounting. The disease is spreading rapidly in a region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo where health care workers have been facing unprecedented violent attacks, both by insurgent militants and anxious locals.

Nevertheless, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the confounding announcement on Wednesday that he will not declare the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern.” ...

why? A lot of locals have expertise and are helping to manage the crisis.

So far, Tedros said, more than 18,000 people in the North Kivu area have been immunized with an experimental Ebola vaccine, and a 250-strong WHO team is on the ground, finding infected people, bringing them into quarantine, and trying to control the outbreak.

A committee of the WHO’s scientific advisors concluded that the government of President Joseph Kabila, with existing international support and expertise, is capable of handling the crisis. sort of global response that belatedly resolved the epidemics in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea in 2014 and 2015...

I left out the 4th horseman: Famine. But that is a danger too. LINK