Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Killer flu

Lots of hysteria about Ebola, a really nasty disease that medical personnel from many countries are fighting in central Africa.

This doesn't worry me too much, however: it is spread via direct contact, so cases and their contacts can be isolated, and there is a new vaccine to stop the spread.

But not much hysteria or headlines about Dengue fever, which is spread via mosquitoes: part of the new normal, I guess, since it rarely kills but just makes you sick as a dog (alternative name: BreakBone fever because of the pain associated with it).

But 100 years after the Great Influenza epidemic of 1918-1919, a new disease with influenza type sickness has popped up in China, and this worries me.

From the BBC:


A mysterious viral pneumonia that has infected dozens in central China is not Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars), health chiefs have said. They also discounted bird flu and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, and said investigations were continuing.
A total of 59 cases have been reported in the city of Wuhan, seven of which are considered critical. The outbreak prompted Singapore and Hong Kong to bring in screening processes for travellers from the city.
in airports this probably means they take your temperature by scanning you, as was done in previous epidemics.

This isn't the first influenza type illness that has popped up in recent years, but luckily most of them have not been very infectious (e.g. MERS and bird flu, at least so far) or prompt public health intervention has stopped the spread via isolating suspected cases (e.g. SARS)
An epidemic of the potentially deadly, flu-like Sars virus killed more than 700 people around the world in 2002-03, after originating in China.

most cases seem to be from animal contact at a meat and seafood market, and not spread person to person.

this is good news, since it means that isolation and finding the source could stop it's spread.

People to people transmission is especially worrisome, since Chinese new year coming next month, people will be traveling home and could spread the disease all over.

I remember a few years ago when a nasty influenza hit Mexico, and it arrived with visitors coming to celebrate the May fiestas. Even our small town hospital acquired hazmat suits just in case. Ditto for MERS: one case arrived in the Philippines in a nurse who worked in Saudi.

And of course, there were a few cases of Yellow fever brought to China with returning workers a couple years back: Luckily mosquito control and prompt hospitalization stopped that disease from spreading.


Person to person contact is more worrisome: If it is spread via direct contact it is easier to control; Spread via mosquitoes is harder (which is why Dengue is such a problem here). But airborne viruses can spread quickly from a cough or sneeze or with minimal contact.

an example is influenza, which goes around every year.

Right now, Asia is having a terrible epidemic of African swine flu, There have been cases in our area, and the gov't ordered pigs in contact with sick pigs  to be killed to stop the spread. One result was a ham shortage at Christmas, where ham is a traditional part of Noche Buena (Christmas eve) dinner, and Lechon (barbecued suckling pig) is served at most larger parties...

Here's a Youtube report from China. Notice people wearing masks? This is quite common here in Asia during flu season.



and here is the history Guy discussing the 1858 quarantine war.



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update;

reminds me of when we had an outbreak of Hanta virus on the Navajo reservation, caused by dust from rat droppings. or like MERS, which is caught from camels in the Middle East, but also spread to a few nurses from the Philippines (and one came back here with it) but was only infectious to very close contact (e.g. suctioning). 

 The only “ good” news about this outbreak in China is that so far it is not spreading person to person, meaning a large spread like in SARS is unlikely. of course, with SARS, the Chinese lied about that outbreak, and covered it up. But here the World Health Organization is involved, so coverup of what's going on would be limited.

---------------update:

breitbart reports several cases have popped up in HongKong, and that the mayor there is worried.

and on FR, a commenter said that it was worse than reported, and his wife says that it may have spread from a non domestic animal sold in the markets there.

and John Bachelor's program discussing  various Chinese problems, includes this comment on the illness:

The Chinese pneumonia from Wuhan (in central China) is not an ordinary malady; seems to be out of control in China. Medical workers in biosuits at the University of Hong Kong. May not be exactly pneumonia, either. Chinese regime hasn't learned anything since SARS, fifteen years ago.

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