Wuhan virus update

the news is probably out of date by now.

why the panic when "only" 1000 cases were reported?

Well, remember in the miniseries Chernobyl when they said the top measurement of radiation was 2, but they forgot to add that their meter only measured up to 2 (and it was ten times higher)?

Same here.

Austin Bay had an analysis of the virus from a geopolitical standpoint:

While meeting with a World Health Organization official in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping ....(said) that the Beijing communist government would "release information on the virus in a 'timely' manner."

Read "timely" as "judged politically convenient by a Communist Party dictatorship confronting economic contraction and political resistance from Hong Kong and Taiwan....

the background? China controls information flow by censoring the internet and even monitoring cellphone information.

In communist China, an individual or even a respected doctor in a research bureau reporting on contaminated food, much less a possible epidemic outbreak, is conceivably guilty of anti-government behavior. Said brave soul is subject to fines, travel restrictions, public shaming and perhaps prison. Why? Because the Chinese Communist Party can dismiss the initial warning as illegal criticism of the party. As the party bigwigs dither, a deadly pathogen kills.

what's that about Hong Kong?

well, they are being inundated with sick people according to this report:




Now governments are starting to close airports to planes from China, evacuating their citizens from China and putting possible contacts from Wuhan etc. into 14 days of quarantine (mostly at home).

So is it too late to stop the pandemic? Who knows.

The bad news is that it can spread from people who aren't sick yet, or have a mild case with few symptoms, and the incubation period is 7 to ten days.

This, plus the low mortality rate, is one reason that the conspiracy theories that it was a biowarfare pathogen that escaped the Wuhan biological laboratory is probably not true: it wouldn't make a good weapon to kill someone's army or enemy: too slow and not lethal enough.

However, that doesn't mean that this laboratory, which after all is a place where such viruses are scientifically studied in order to figure out a vaccine, might not have had an accidental release of the virus.

update: John Bachelor's radio program discusses:


The good news: The Wuhan virus is not very lethal.
Why do I say this? well, so far few dead bodies have popped up, even in contacts outside of China.

Of course, if it spread like influenza, this could mean millions infected and lots of dead people. To put it into perspective, the US had 80 thousand deaths associated with influenza in 2019.

however, the danger to China might be more than a few thousand deaths: it is affecting their economy.

Another problem to a China that is trying to spread it's influence around Asia by investment and bullying: it will make them unpopular.

This editorial in the PhilInquirer notes: It could cause a worsening in anti Chinese feeling, a sentiment that is already high here in the Philippines due to their stealing of the fishing grounds in the West Philippine sea and the fact that they refuse to hire locals in their casinos etc.

the editorial writer notes that after a Cholera epidemic in the 1820 that people rioted and killed both Chinese and Europeans who they blamed for spreading the disease, claiming they "poisoned" the river where people obtained drinking water.

Like most conspiracy theories, it was partly correct, except that the "poison" was probably just improperly disposed excrement into the river by travelers from a cholera infected country: similar to how "peacekeepers" from Nepal were the source of a cholera epidemic in Haiti in 2010 that affected 800 thousand and killed ten thousand.

In that case, the UN etc. denied any connection, even after pesky reporters found they were spilling garbage and waste into the nearby river.

So far, the hysteria about the Wuhan virus seems to be exaggerated, but given the way bureaucrats dither and dictatorships cover up, one does worry that this is resulting in conspiracy theories taking over.

one example of this is that it is easier for me to find "fake news" about the epidemic than read the NYTimes articles which are behind a fire wall.

BBC summarizes FAQ for you here.

CDC page updates frequently HERE.

here in the Philippines, no confirmed cases but there are 28 suspected cases, and the gov't is very worried: They just sent a planeload of Chinese tourists going to Boracay back to China
one problems is that the lack of the ability to test for the virus, so tests have been sent to Australia. The Japanese promised to  send material to help with the testing.