When China started their aggression first by sending in fishing boats and chasing our fishermen, and then by roping off the areas and building artificial islands by digging up the seabed, the Obama administration pressured president Aquino not to fight back. So Duterte now faces a fully militarized Chinese islands off our coast, and no way short of a major war that could chase them out.
He has tried to make nice in many ways with China, but the "give and take" has actually resulted in "we give and are planning to take all your stuff".
Meaning not only the fishing grounds, but the natural gas etc. under the West Philippine sea, not to mention that they can now block the sea-lanes from Europe/ the middle East into Japan and Korea... and a lot of locals suspect since Chinese and Chinoy families run our economy, there is a danger of becoming a Chinese satellite.
The importation of 100 thousand Chinese to work in local Casinos has caused a big uproar, for example: the casinos were supposed to bring jobs in for locals, but they have not. Wikipedia page (?accuracy) discusses.
StrategyPage discusses how the Chinese are imitating Germany's search for "lebensraum" in Asia. Read the whole thing: One of the push backs is Russia, so one does hope that the fake "Russia" stuff pushed against Trumpie boy will stop so that he can pivot with Putin against the long term Chinese plan to take over eastern Siberia and the central Asian states that used to be part of the USSR.
But for us, the "lebensraum" policies of China are already hurting us: and China is now trying to push the Philippines out of another island, Second Thomas Reef, long occupied by the Philippines.
Will Duterte push back, or let them start a war? who knows.
China is also expanding the same shenanigans further afield:
China has been trying to take over islands and fishing grounds off of Indonesia, and that country is fighting back. As in sending their Navy to sink "fishing vessels". Again the StrategyPage article has the details.
Duterte is hated in the west for his anti drug crusade and this "human rights" pressure has made him more anti American (whereas the locals like Americans, but not American interference in elections etc.).
The human rights types behind the anti Duterte crusade don't care about the dead Filipinos from drug wars or home invasions by druggies, or that Duterte's war on drugs has stopped the country from becoming another narco state like Mexico.
Indeed, one suspects a lot of the "human rights" hyperbole, and the opposition (e.g. Grace Poe) are CIA surrogate shenanigans against Duterte who is seen as a weak ally against Chinese expansion.
Sigh.
Locally, however, we are safer, so the drug war has made Duterte very popular here. But his pro Chinese policies are not popular, and indeed, China's intransigence is undermining his popularity.
this editorial in the Phil Inquirer mentions all the problems: Chinese takeovers in the West Philippine Sea, the Casino jobs that didn't hire locals but brought in Chinese citizens to do the work, and the promises to help build infrastructure that never quite became reality.
They then bring up the tipping point:
Even more shockingly, when neighbors and major countries began shuttering their borders to China amid the new coronavirus epidemic, the Duterte administration worried about the “political and diplomatic repercussions” of any serious countermeasure against inbound travel from China. As Beijing began to lock down Wuhan and surrounding areas following a weeks-long cover up, the administration still welcomed more than 100 Chinese from the area.Time and again, the President has seemingly prioritized diplomacy with China over the protection of his own people...But now that a Chinese man has died here of the Wuhan virus, there is a real danger of a major anti Chinese backlash.
Duterte says don't blame the Chinese for the virus, but most people do blame the Chinese for this (heck, most of the Chinese blame the Chinese government for letting the virus get out of control).
Ironically, the anti Chinese feeling may stop Duterte from destroying the Philippine/American visiting armed forces agreement. There is a huge backlash against Duterte's decision in the Senate and growing anti Chinese feeling in the population may force him to change his mind, especially if US help is needed to fight the epidemic.
The first Wuhan virus death outside of China was in the Philippines, and the DOH is tracing and testing the contacts of the first diagnosed cases here, including one who died.
One of the problems here was the inability to test for the virus: the lab tests had to be sent to Australia at first, meaning a delay in diagnosis. And even if the test is available, people in the early stages of the virus might test negative.
somewhat belatedly, the Chinese travelers and tourists are being banned and some have been sent back to China,
Filipinos returning from China are being asked to stay in quarantine.
in the meanwhile, contingency plans are being made in cases there is an exodus of our OFW in China and Hong Kong, and there are also contingency plans being made in case the virus spreads and schools etc. will have to be shut down.
None of this affects us so far in the provinces, where the main problem is the cold spell and the dangers of hypothermia and illness in the vulnerable, and the danger to farm animals and crops in the mountains of the north.
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from BBC:
Various countries have imposed travel restrictions to a varying degree.
Denying entry to all foreign visitors who have recently been to China: US, Australia, Singapore
Denying entry to foreigners travelling from mainland China: New Zealand, Israel
Denying entry to foreigners who have visited Hubei province: Japan, South Koreathe Philippines also bans non citizens from China/Macau/Hong kong from entering.
the BBC article says that China is upset that there are travel bans:
Global health officials have advised against the bans. "Travel restrictions can cause more harm than good by hindering info-sharing, medical supply chains and harming economies," the head of the WHO, Dr Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus, said on Friday. The WHO recommends introducing screening at border crossings.uh, there are not enough tests available in many countries to screen everyone, and the test doesn't detect early asymptomatic cases, so this advice is bunk.
And of course, such bans don't stop "illegal" entries into countries. A big worry here in the Philippines.
China has criticised the wave of travel restrictions, accusing foreign governments of ignoring official advice.well, maybe the WHO is being ignored here because some folks suspect China has pressured the WHO to play nice, but no body dares say this out loud.
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update:
Strategytalk podcast on the background of the epidemic.
Is Wuhan virus China's Chernobyl, where the government's (lack of ) response led to a disaster?
BBC article on the doctor who posted a headsup warning of a possible new SARS type pneumonia on the local social media read by other doctors on December 30 and was punished for it by the Chinese government.
update2: Michael Yon reports from Thailand and Hong Kong
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