Saturday, July 18, 2020

the problem of the virus here

StrategyPage has a long discussion of various problems in the Philippines, including the covid dilemma: die of hunger/malnutrition or die of the virus? A lot of this I have posted about in the past, but SP is usually well written and concise in their analysis.


The quarantine has been lifted in rural areas where there have been far fewer covid19 cases. But now there are calls to keep the lockdown in cities.
The problem is that this shuts down the economy and the government has not got the resources to feed and care for so many urban Filipinos who are confined to their homes. ...
Covid19 cases in the Philippines are concentrated in cities, especially the capital Manila. Overall, the Philippines has suffered fifteen covid19 (coronavirus) deaths per million population so far, which is up from nine per million five weeks ago. Confirmed cases per million have gone from 200 to 525 known cases of the virus per million people.,,,
dirty little secret: The number of cases depends on the testing. Which is why the US has a huge number of cases, but the death rate has been stable for months, something the MSM is ignoring. This is especially true when talking about third world rates of the virus. And I won't even get into the "false positive" and "false negative" problems of doing widespread testing of a large number of mostly negative patients.

so how bad is the virus? SP Summary:

The number of confirmed cases is just that, people who have been tested and found to be, or has been infected.
It’s been known from the beginning (thanks to being able to test everyone on cruise ships and warships) that 80 percent of the population suffers no ill effects from the virus and half those who do get it feel no ill effects. The death rate for covid19 is low compared to the killer epidemics of the past (smallpox, typhoid, and so on) but higher than most strains of influenzas that appear each year. Scary but not that scary.
so what does this mean to the Philippines, where poverty can kill you?


Many Filipinos do the math and realize that the efforts to halt the spread of the virus are more dangerous than the virus itself.
 and how many children will die because they didn't get their baby shots? or adults die because they don't have money to buy their BP medicine and have a stroke, or don't get their cancer or other disease checkups done?

The SP also discusses China's aggression and that other countries are finally helping the Philippines to push back and defend their territory.

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