War War War War

 wtf is going on in the Ukraine vs Russia? 

USNI analysis it's about keeping the Ukraine out of NATO, which they see as the enemy threatening to encircle them, and also about intimidating Europe. And to make matters worse, it's about Turkey, a traditional enemy of Russia and a NATO member:

they link to this article.

Russia’s threats against Ukraine are more dangerous now because, ultimately, its public threats earlier this year failed. … First, it was a reminder to Washington of Moscow’s military power and forced dialogue with the Biden administration to clarify the U.S.-Russian relationship. Second, the buildup occurred just a month after Ukrainian President Zelensky decided to shut down three television channels controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of President Vladimir Putin. … The third factor explaining the timing of the spring buildup was Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan won with critical support from Turkey, which included Turkish officers operating the TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles that played such a crucial role.

Strategypage analyzes Russia vs her neighbors.

when the Ukraine became independent, there were a lot of Russian nukes left behind there. They agreed to give up these nukes if the west promised to defend them against Russia.

also note more is involved: Russian hackers, pipelines bringing natural gas to keep Europe warm in the winter, the trade routes in the northern Baltic area, -----------

 Up until 2014 Ukraine trusted Russia and the 1994 treaty. That is all gone and NATO nations, especially the new East European NATO members, will support Ukrainians against any Russian invasion, including support of Ukrainian resistance fighters in newly occupied areas. Putin could make a case for seizing Crimea but not so much Donbas and none at all for the rest of Ukraine. Were another Russian operation in Ukraine fail, Putin would lose much credibility inside Russia. He has already lost a lot of that because after 2014 Western economic sanctions pushed more and more Russians into poverty and convinced many Russians with exportable skills to move to the West. East European NATO members, especially the three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Poland, Denmark and Germany have another reason to stand firm against Russia. They want to keep Russia from disrupting commerce in the Baltic, ..........

and the problem of the southern "stan" countries that worry about Islamic terrorism spreading there (from Afghanistan), and might chose China to defend them instead of their traditional helper in Russia.

Kazahkstan used to be a joke in the USA, but now it is another place war could start.

Nazarbayev saw this possibility early on and sought to avoid a successful popular uprising by having Kazakhstan join several economic and security agreements with Russia, and a few with China. Tokayev invoked the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) agreement. CSTO was formed in 2002 with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia agreeing to support each other in security emergencies. Within a week a CSTO peacekeeping force of 2,500 troops began arriving in Kazakhstan. Most of the CTTO forces were Russian and all of them were used to replace Kazak troops who were protecting economic and military installations.

oh well... Russia is weak, but it remembers it's old empire and empires tend to want to reform in today's post American world, where the Team America World Police got tired of being the scapegoat for European snobs. So I figure few Americans will be willing to send their sons to die for Hunter Biden's friends.

And no one wants to talk about it, but the woke has hit the military, so I suspect many will not be willing to join it. The latest? Trying to allow non bianary folk in the military, which means you could lose your job if you get his/her/their pronouns wrong.

Sheesh.

it takes competence not political correctness. and as wokeness hits medicine and the STEM, the USA is in danger of losing it's ability to do basic things. JPeterson on the destruction of the university system notes the problem.

It is an intellectual problem when those in charge don't know anything except PC history and ignore the rest of the story, because history and basic cultural knowledge gives insight into what is going on.

AustinBay explains why Russia wants a viable empire back

The common economic interests linking Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were a potential post-Cold War positive. Russia needed Ukraine's immense agricultural productivity." RUBK explained: "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube. RUBK is Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. The demographics, natural resources and economic capacities these four nations possess is a geostrategic formula for a global power.

and he also  notes how the hubris of the Biden administration led to the disasters of the Afghanistan withdrawal: there was a plan to do this, but hey, we know better than those with expertise in the matter.

sardonically  notes that the reason that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was botched is that no one bothered to read how to do it.

All the essential operational details (based on hard lessons learned) are laid out in a Joint Chiefs of Staff pamphlet titled Joint Publication 3-68. Anyone literate may read the "Joint Pub" on the internet, all seven chapters.

Sigh.

I hate to think of how these bozos plan to defend the Philippines (or Taiwan) against China. 

Probably send them a nasty letter.