StrategyPage report on the Philippines has the description of how China uses fishing vessels and it's artificial islands to threaten us.
The fishing resources alone are enormously valuable and, based on past Chinese performance, likely to be exploited to the point where there are not many fish left to catch. There is also offshore oil and gas and much else on the bottom of the shallow waters of the South China Sea. So far, the Chinese threat has proved immune to accommodation
the destruction of the ecosystem and decimation of fish is being done openly, but of course the green environmentalists are not complaining about it.
And the greens (and Catholic bishops here) who oppose fossil fuel investment (needed for modern agriculture and fertilizer) also are not bothering to notice that China intends to steal these resources too.
More about their strategy HERE>
This reorganization reflects the favorite Chinese tactic for asserting its claims to control most of the South China Sea by avoiding the use of military vessels. Instead, it sends out these “police” ships to harass and threaten foreign ships operating in what international law considers the high seas but that China considers its territorial waters.
If any of these intruders call in warships, then China will defend itself by calling its own warships and aircraft and protest this act of foreign aggression....
A favorite tactic to take possession of a disputed reef by sending in a growing number (eventually more than 200) Chinese naval militia fishing boats inside the reef. Most of the Chinese trawlers were lashed together in groups of five to twenty boats that formed a pattern preventing real fishing boats from operating inside the reef. China claimed all these Chinese fishing boats inside the reef were taking shelter from bad weather. This is often the case with reefs in the South China Sea, but there was no correlation between the presence of Chinese boats inside the reef and the actual weather in the area. The Chinese claims don’t stand up to close scrutiny. With so many cellphone videos and high-res images from aircraft and warships available, all China can do is keep lying and do it aggressively and with assurance that no one will do much about it.
I bring this up because China has been doing Naval exercizes around Taiwan (which not only threaten Taiwan but the shipping lanes in the area).
Global Voices has a long report on that aggression HERE.
and not only threatening Taiwan but some of the stuff they are lobbing around has landed in areas under Japan.
More HERE at asahi.com
this article notes that these drills are letting the US and other allies essentially see China's military tactics. including jamming/electronic warfare.
But they note that drills are not the same hting as actual war where you are being shot at, and includes this little backhanded criticism of the US military intelligence:
The United States believed that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv within two to three days, but their estimates were wrong.
well, duh. That explains why for a month, the west twiddled their thumbs while offering to fly the president of the Ukraine out of the country (in contrast, Elon Musk within a week started to get his skylink replaccing the internet for communication )
That failure in miltary intelligence is discussed here.
fast forward to 27 minutes where they discusss how China is watching what is going on, because although China looks impressive, they also have trouble with a hollow military and also China has very real economic problems.
Discussion of logistics problems in Chinese military from the India Times.HERE
So will there be a Pacific war?
well, stories of how the woke reform of the military is weakening America's defense capability are all over the news: What I can't judge is how much of this is true (and remember: when you leave the miltary you are active or inactive reserve for years, so battle hardened troops could be called up in case of war.)
But China's military has not been fighting anyone with a trained military, with the exception of India, and that is a small war.
And this ignores more recent developments in war...
This is one reason I linked to the discussion of underwater drones etc. from the Naval institute blog a few days ago: it's not your grandfather's war in the Pacific.
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update: StrategyPage just posted a new essay on China's economic problems LINK
and includes this part about the Philippines:
The South China Sea situation is becoming more difficult for China because the Philippines came up with ways to reduce the Chinese threat by reducing corrupt Chinese influence in the Philippines. ,,,Until China expanded its “lost territory” claims to the South China Sea nearly two decades ago. China was seen as a potential ally of, and investor in, the Philippines. Despite numerous Filipino diplomatic efforts, China refused to compromise on its claims. At this point China is seen as the greatest threat to the Philippines, especially since the Chinese appear to have additional claims on Filipino territory and independence as a nation.
that refers to an episode a few years ago where on the Chinese media, newsreader referred to Luzon as part of China. Duterte madea a couple of jokes about this, and one Filipino wag quickly put up a sign about China's new province.
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