backstories to the news

Does Chloroquin help those with corona virus?

Conspiracy theory: did China know this and not tell people about this deliberately?

this is a "Black swan" event: 

And China is busy pushing their "help" to remove their guilt in not stopping the virus because they tried to cover it up.

part of the push is China trying to stop people from using Wuhan flu to describe the disease, and pushing the idea that the US was behind the virus somehow.

here in the Philippines, there is a worry that the disease will be spread through the refugees from the Taal volcano.

here in the Philippines, there are not a lot of cases but they are already finding a problem getting supplies. The staff are overworked and the long commute due to screening travelers is not making it easier for health care workers.

Joy said that they needed a permit to deliver rice to Manila, and it only took one day for her to get it, so we might be doing a rice delivery this weekend.

How to share a ventillator in times of shortages

In his podcast Dilbert discussed the ventillator shortage, and one of his commenters noted that ventillators could be shared in times of emergency:

not only was this done in animal models, but some smart ER docs actually did this after the Las Vegas shooting:

From EPMontly:

Around that time the respiratory therapist, said, “Menes, we don’t have any more ventilators.” I said, “It’s fine,” and requested some Y tubing. Dr. Greg Neyman, a resident a year ahead of me in residency, had done a study on the use of ventilators in a mass casualty situation. What he came up with was that if you have two people who are roughly the same size and tidal volume, you can just double the tidal volume and stick them on Y tubing on one ventilator.

of course, in pneumonia patients, it's a little more complicated (stiff lungs, sharing germs) but you get the idea.

So five minutes ago, one doc posted this video about this, and will post follow up videos and information.



Spread the word

Family news: shutdown

everything is being shut down here: schools, shops, etc.

by "here" I mean the entire island of Luzon (not just Manila, which has been shut down for several days already).

The food stores are open as are the pharmacies and banks so far.

but even in our small town, there are police checkpoints that ask why you are traveling and check you out.

agggh: The "night market" is closed. What will the kids do?



But the news about the long lines of the military screening folks to get into Manila and the blocks on the roads make us worry if we can do our rice deliveries... this could be a major disaster: not the virus but the side effects of stopping it.

and economically it is a disaster for people working as street vendors or in shops/malls or restaurants that are shut.

The Inquirer says they finally are opening lanes for trucks bringing in needed supplies to Manila. So maybe we will be able to deliver rice later this week.

Locally it is quiet and everyone is sort of "hunkering down". Extended families help each other, but of course, it also means that the elderly are in contact with young people who might be asymptomatic and spread the disease. On the other hand, it also means the elderly won't die alone because no one is there to care for them.

all the miltary/ police screening is close to marshal law, but so far Duterte says no it's not marshal law.

In the USA, the press is crazy: Trumpieboy is killing people for not doing enough, they say, and next meme will be that he is a dictator, or that he is killing the economy. 

The danger is if the blockades and shut downs work, that fewer people will die. So then, the anti Trumpiboy talking points of the MSM will rewrite history by saying all these interventions were not needed: They were just Trumpieboy (or Duterte) using the crisis to become a dictator.

Never mind about reports from countries that didn't do these things that are reporting thousands of cases and a major crisis.

A relative in the UK says that her hospital had one case, but that they are having trouble finding fresh meat etc. in the shops.

Supply chain? Logistics?

Stock market panic is normal, but one does wonder if there has been manipulation there. Oh well, it's only my pension. So much for being a good person who saved her money for my old age.

and the next rumor is that the internet will go down.

in the meanwhile, Kuya was supervising the rice harvest yesterday. 

As Lolo promised, if I cam to the Philippines, I'd always have rice to eat. He lived though the depression and World War II so would probably less upset at all this "panic" than younger folks.

And we eat "locally". But Manila is not that far, so one worries if they open up we'll see loads of folks returning home to their families here.

In the USA, there are reports that in some cities the mayors said they won't arrest "petty crime" like burglaries and drug selling. 

Well, that explains why there are also reports of people buying up guns in the USA. A gun in an untrained hand is worse than nothing, but a lot of people in small towns hunt or were in the military (especially "boomers") so one wonders if there will be an increase in self defense shootings there.

Some of the US National Guard units have been called up. I had to laugh at the clueless yuppies who said: what will they do, shoot the virus? Yes, clueless. 

The National Guard training includes crowd control, but also disaster relief (e.g. supplying food, water, and medical help in civilian emergencies). And of course, part of our training was "NBC warfare": nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. Including protecting oneself, decontamination, etc. 

But luckily this wuhanflu is not as bad as smallpox etc. It is no worse than influenza: it is just that no one has immunity, meaning everyone might become sick at the same time, and no one will be there to care for them, or even supply food etc. for mild cases. 

Hence the emphasis on "Flattening the curve" so that the healthcare system won't collapse. The bad news, of course, being that it means the epidemic will last longer.

But it also means "herd immunity" will spread (mild cases that will develop immunity so that the disease stops spreading). And it gives time for treatments and vaccines to be developed.

In the meanwhile, here there is a ceasefire with the NPA etc. which might or might not work, but it will free up the military to do screening.
---------------------
update: StrategyPage summarizes the macro (federal) and micro (local and individual) responses to the virus.

update: Dilbert (Scott Adams) list of his recent podcasts that have been emphasizing the positive news. 

Family news

the family is well so far: no corona virus yet in our area that we know of, but there have been quite a few people coming to the door asking for help to go to the ER for "bronchitis". 

?Influenza? Undiagnosed coronavirus?

Manila is on lockdown, screening everyone going in and out so traveling there is a mess. (3 hour delay for workers trying to get to and from work).

We are not quarantined yet, but the mayor has closed the schools and church meetings, and the big Monday palenke (when outside vendors come in to sell stuff) was canceled.

I updated my will, just in case. I had to get all the information out to file my income tax, so I updated the information on my will.

here, doing this is considered morbid, but hey, I'm a Yank.

Rice harvest is going on right now, so people are busy.

The quarantine will hurt a lot of poor people.

And to make things worse: Bird flu was just found at a local quail farm. This usually doesn't affect humans but could raise the price of eggs and chickens if it spreads to the large chicken farms in the area, and of course spread to the locals who have "backyard chickens" or fighting cocks.

 This is on top of the African swine flu that hit a bunch of local pigs.


(we are no longer in the chicken business nor do we raise pigs).

-------------------------

in more coronavirus news:

heh. Instapundit says they are doing a trial of antibodies from patients who recovered from the coronavirus to see if it works.

This was how they treated pneumonia and diphtheria in the good old days before antibiotics. (This is the story behind Balto and the film Togo, about delivering Diphtheria anti serum in Alaska).

They also use it for rabies, in cases of serious dogbites, (e.g. many bites or bites to the face) to prevent the disease while you take the vaccine to build up your own immunity.

there are several countries working on vaccines, and also checking which drugs work the best.

By slowing the spread of the disease by quarantine etc., it is hoped that these interventions will be available as the epidemic continues. (which is why isolation is about lowering the curve rather than lowering the actual number of cases).

England is considering another approach: Herd immunity. If enough people get a mild case and become immune, the disease will stop spreading. therefore, it won't spread to the vunerable (who hopefully will stay away from others until the danger passes)

That of course assumes immunity from the infection, and of course, risks deaths among the "low risk" population.

---------------------
update:

Duterte has put Luzon on lockdown:

He said he decided to expand the quarantine to the rest of Luzon because there were reports that other areas on the island had coronavirus cases. The government does not have the luxury of time and wait to verify if there is a contagion in other places, he said. “I cannot go into a guessing game,” he said...

 private establishments providing basic necessities and such activities related to food and medicine production would remain open during the enhanced community quarantine.

These include public markets, supermarkets, grocery stores, convenience stores, hospitals, medical clinics, pharmacies and drug stores, food preparation and delivery services, water refilling stations, manufacturing and processing plants of basic food products and medicines, banks, money transfer services, power, energy, water and telecommunication supplies and facilities.

Earlier, since I had heard we go on lockdown tomorrow; so I went to the bank and we sent the secretary to the grocery store to buy bread.

presumably we will be allowed to deliver rice to Manila area.

and of course it is harvest time, so it means lots of work on the farm won't be affected.

Netflix to the rescue

if you are stuck at home, and have NetFlix, try watching the K-Drama Crash Landing on you. (warning: Subtitles but never mind it's great)

a 16 part miniseries (we've only watched up to part 11 so I don't know how it ends).



And don't forget to bring a handkerchief.

update: BBC report.

and yes, it has a three handkerchief ending.

but isn't it ironic that the "heroes" of the miniseries are North Korean soldiers?

I hear NoKo hated it, but hey, Mr. Kim, you should jump on it as a way to open reunification talks.

The problem with forgiveness

................


is there a way to forgive a person for a terrible deed? 

Yes, as Dr R mentions: if they are just an ordinary person who makes a mistake, the forgiveness will allow them to rebuild their life.

But a narcissist who will see forgiveness as a "get out of jail free" card, will go on and do the same thing again and again.

think Harvey Weinstein, whose abuse went on for decades while he was accepted by the Hollywood elite and politicians who wililngly took his money. Or Theodore McCarrick. Or the bishop whose cruising and dolce vita lifetyle using the donations of pious Catholics who scandalized the South American country but was hired by Rome, and defended by the Pope who said "who am I to judge". (reporter Sandro Magister has the sordid details).

For the powerful, these sexual misdeeds are often associated with corruption, cronyism, and financial shenanigans, which is why the Pope's failure to "judge" has infuriated many Catholics.

(and it's not just the churches: the rot is into politics, the schools, and many beloved institutions that have been used by narcissists to mask their behavior: i.e. wolf in sheep's clothing.

however, for the victim, the emotional danger is worse if the perpetrator is a family member, or a relative or a "friend" (including teacher, neighbor or clergyman) who befriends you and grooms you for sex (or money or power over your actions, e.g. when a teenager is pressured to use or sell drugs by a "friend"). Often the victim is chosen because they were vulnerable: they needed approval or a close friendship.

the emotional manipulation, confusion and the love/hate emotions felt by the victim is why many end up dulling their emotional turmoil with drugs etc. 

and society's pressure to forgive is one of the problems.

but narcissists are not limited to sexual sphere: Parents can destroy their children by emotional manipulation.. And these are harder to diagnose because the child (or adult who you see for other reasons) rarely mentions it.

It overlaps with physical abuse, but not always.

psychological manipulation is just as bad, if not worse, than simple physical abuse.



and it takes a lot of therapy or a minor miraculous spiritual intervention to help these victims so that they forgive in a way that allows them peace yet stops the perpetrator from manipulating them again.


Sigh.

What about the homeless etc?

BBC article says their gov't says maybe the homeless need to "self isolate"

 Proposed new laws, reportedly giving the police the power to arrest anyone with the virus not self-isolating indoors, will be published this week. She warned rough sleepers could be "disproportionately affected" by this.

but what about homeless shelters? How do hotels ventilate their air (Legionier's disease was because the water in the air conditioner was contaminated, but could air from one room go to another room, as happened in SARS?)

will the disease spread likewise through crowded apartment buildings and slum housing?

What about those in prisons?

And then there is the problem of the military.

This StrategyPage article from Feb has a lot of stuff about China, including this snippet about those well publicized hospitals that they constructed: but the military couldn't or wouldn't staff them.

February 19, 2020: In Hubei province, two new field hospitals the army created in record time (less than ten days near Wuhan, the provincial capital have not been used much, if at all...

It turned out that the army was unable to deliver all the military medical personnel to staff in both hospitals. Some of the soldiers who built the hospitals came down with the virus and army leaders realized that their medical personnel would be needed at army hospitals if the virus hit a large number of military personnel or immediate family.

and keep medical personnel in your prayers, because if China's experience is repeated, a lot of them will catch the disease:

Wuhan could not spare any medical personnel because over 3,000 local doctors and nurses had come down with the disease and most were still being treated while over a hundred had died. Most of these medical casualties were in Hubei and Wuhan.

in the meanwhile, here in the Philippines, Manila is sealed off.
except for urgent errands.

How urgent it it?

Large gatherings like church services, movies and cockfighting are prohibited 

(italics mine)

you know it's serious when men can't go to the local cockfights.

also offices are closed:

and most government work in executive department offices is suspended until April 14. School closures, originally up to April 12, were extended up to April 14.

people with mild symptoms that test positive will be kept at home in quarantine.

the gov't is following the Chinese model on isolating communities.

following the Korean model that relies on testing and isolating those who test positive is a problem because of the lack of tests and the one week delay in getting results.

other reasons to worry: 

The poor are often in close contact with each other in small houses. And unlike the USA, where food can be stored in freezers etc. most people here shop for food every day in the local palenke. (which is often "open air", so presumably less dangerous than the indoor grocery store, but probably less hygienic).

My maid's godmother in Manila died (she's been very sick from a stroke) and she claimed it was Wuhan flu, but I personally doubt it. There are the usual viruses going around: we have been asked for money to help neighbors asking for donations for sick kids with asthma/bronchitis. And with the "tag init", i.e. hot season, the deaths from high blood pressure get worse.

Sigh. 

--------------
update: The food kiosks and Palenke are open but the Monday morning Palenke vendors are not here (i.e. shut down the big market).

presumably the larger stores for groceries etc are still open.

Cat video of the day

dominoes

want something to do while you are in quarantine?

Stack up some dominoes.



don't have any domonoes? Try one of these:

Fighting to keep people healthy

Manila is slowly going into isolation:

it doesn't affect us yet (we are in the provinces). But Joy is there delivering rice today to our private customers who are stocking up in case they get quarantined.

How serious is it? They have forbidden people kissing the foot of the Black Nazarene statue... and stopped mass in some Metro Manila areas. You can still marry or get your child baptised, but not with a crowd. You can still go inside to pray, and hand saniizer is present in the entranceway (presumably next to the holy water).
and as to weddings:

“For weddings, you can’t stop love, you know. If they push through with it, maybe they can cut down on the number of guests. They would also reduce their expenses. We should remember that mass gatherings are prohibited for now,” Lopez said.

does isolation/quarantine/keeping your distance work?
CDC report on Singapore suggests it helps.

Singapore implemented strong surveillance and containment measures, which appear to have slowed the growth of the outbreak. These measures might be useful for detection and containment of COVID-19 in other countries that are experiencing the start of local COVID-19 outbreaks. Singapore is a small island city-state, and nations with other characteristics might need to adapt and augment Singapore’s approaches to achieve the same level of effectiveness.

On the other hand, they tend to be obedient there, so that would be considered a "best case scenerio".


The Saudis have a ban on Filipinos entering that country... except for medical personnel, who will be allowed in but screened carefully.

if the Wuhan flu hits the crowded dormitories housing foreign workers, it could be a disaster...foreign workers not only do a lot of the construction/oil industry work, but they staff many of the private shops and businesses. and many more affluent families have overseas caregivers/maids.

---------------------------

But Wuhan flu is not the only danger to life.

the CDC has a report on who is dying of overdoses: 70 percent of overdose deaths involved opioids, including Fentanyl or fentalyl analogues.

So beneath the hysteria, there are reports that the DEA has arrested 250 middle and higher levels of those in one of the more murderous Mexican drug cartel organizations.

Manila on lockdown

===......

 we are not in the Manila area but it's just a matter of time since a lot of folks have families who live there, and of course, we do rice deliveries to customers there

---------------------------
I have argued that the reason behind the quarantine/travel restrictions etc. is to keep the hospitals from collapsing.

Here is a graphic:

------------------
Kuya is preparing to go into the disaster mode, but I reminded him we grow rice, so would probably be safe at the farm, which is what my husband's widowed mother did, taking the kids with her when World War II started.

Of course, that means rice and fish and rice every day, ,but hey we eat that anyway.

In the meanwhile, I went to the lawyer to get my will updated (I had prepared the papers last month when I did my income tax but didn't get around to it until today). Wuhan flu is in Manila, and it's only a matter of time, and I have asthma.... so just in case.

Here, making a will is considered morbid: as if you are thinking you will die will make it happen.
But I am a Yank, so want everything to be prepared.

speaking of income tax: I got my refund by direct deposit.

Thanks Turbo Tax on line!

Quarantine update: Stopping the spread

Heh. I was just perusing my youtube videos and ran across Trumpieboy announcing he is closing flights to Europe to keep out their Corona virus infected types (the UK is okay for now).

  link2 includes this "Must criticize Trumpieboy" paragraph:

The White House has struggled to execute a cohesive plan to stop the spread of the virus. The president has careened back and forth between insisting the coronavirus is no worse than a common flu and demanding that Congress pass drastic financial relief, including a proposed payroll tax holiday.

so which is it? a "WAGD" (we're all gonna die) infection, or just another flu like epidemic that will kill a couple thousand (mainly older) folk but not a big deal?

uh, both and neither.

As I have stated several times in past posts, since it is a new virus, it will hit everyone at once, and could collapse the hospital/medical system if it does so.

Slow down the spread, and it is easier to manage: fewer cases spread out over a longer time.

the worst case scenerio is 150 million who could catch it in the US (sort of puts that part about "lack of test kits into perspective).

in the past, schools and nursing homes have been shut down to slow the spread of influenza, and I'm old enough to remember when they actually quarantined cases of scarlet fever and measles.

Trumpie boy seems to be in front of the curve here: He stopped travel from China before many other countries, and now will try to stop it from spreading from Europe (how many cases came on with elites?).

AlJ reports that many unniversities are shutting down their classes (and some students are mad,  by gum).

and even the USSurpreme court is getting into the act, sort of, by saying it's okay to keep migrants out of the country while they wait an asylum hearing.

What is going on? Uh, maybe because the elite have realized they might catch it.

That priest who had it but shook the hands of 500 people was at a Washington DC Episcopal church where a lot of the government elites attend. (Full story at WaPost behind a paywall).

for those of you outside the US, the Episcopal church is traditionally the church of the rich white elites that ran America, although their numbers have gone down this is still true in the US Capital area.

So where did the guy get infected? From visiting the homeless or from a traveler from Europe?

and it's not just the clergy to the elite who seem to be spreading the germ: A Boston scientific conference was behind most of the cases there, and then there are the airport screeners who tested positive.

===============
in the meanwhile, here in the Philippines, not much is going on:

Rappler reports (March 11)

68 - admitted to hospitals
662 - discharged from hospitals
The tracker also reflected only 33 confirmed cases, but by Wednesday afternoon, DOH announced 16 more cases. Of the 49 confirmed cases, 46 are currently admitted to hospitals, two have been discharged, and one has died.

but maybe a lot of cases are being overlooked because they also note here that 6 people who left the Philippines came down with the virus after returning home (to SoKoreaa, Singapore and Japan).

Meaning they caught it somewhere from someone who might not have been very sick.

Most of the local cases are in SanJuan in Marakina, an affluent city in the Metro Manila area. and one case presumably was infected at a prayer meeting which means he might have caught it from a local, not an visitor.
They have shut down schools in the area.

most of the 445 cruise ship personnel/tourists who returned here were in quarantine however were cleared to go home (only 2 cases tested positive).

Duterte is being tested, as are a lot of the government VIPS.
Rappler report has a little list and notes the Senate is in lockdown.

and the schools in the Metro Manila were closed this week, though March 15.

and as I noted earlier, the trade fair that Joy and Kuya planned to attend (and exhibit our rice) was postponed.

Here, things are going along normally: schools here haven't closed down yet. But we are close to Manila, and many locals have family members who work there and come home on weekends, so it's just a matter of time.

and if a lot of folks get sick and die, Duterte, who is friendly with China, will get a lot of the blame (probably incorrectly because flights to and from there were stopped on Feb 2) but hey politics here is worse than the USA).

------------------
other countries are suffering but not getting into the news.

Iran, alas, thanks to sanctions by the west, was friendly with China and so was slow in stopping flights and contacts. And now the explosion of cases is overwhelming their hospitals.

but I worry about sub Saharan Africa, which like Iran has many ties to China and may not have wanted to anger China by stopping travel to and from that country. But ironically, most of the cases diagnosed there so far seem to have been from Europe: maybe because tourism is spreading the disease, or maybe because many are immigrants who live there and were coming home to visit.
There are a million Chinese living in Africa (see BBC article below) but I suspect many live and work isolated from the locals (in gated communities, as do the elites and did the whites in the colonial era..think neo-colonialsm and you get the idea), whereas the tourists would spread the disease to tourism guides and hotel/airline workers, and of course, those visiting relatives will infect their extended families (which in Africa, like here in the Philippines, tend to be huge).

Maybe China has stopped folks who have been in contact with the disease from traveling to Africa.

or maybe they just aren't testing the right folks.


BBC article discusses:

The continent has close links to China, where the infection originated in late December, but the cases in Africa have all so far been linked to Europe. They have mushroomed in the last week, which is of particular concern as it is feared that poorer countries on the continent may struggle to cope if it does spread.

: Wikipedia already has a webpage for the epidemic in South Africa.

The SADailyMaverick reports that most of the cases came from Europe. And the "dog that didn't bark" is found in one of their comments:

The effect of Coronavirus on immunocompromised TB and HIV patients will be devastating.

on the other hand, in warmer climates, people live out doors a lot more, so one suspects the spread will be lowe thanks to the sunlight and wind on airborne droplets. But of course I haven't seen many studies on this.

The bad news is that it will still spread indoors, in schools, shops, malls, hotels, buses, etc.

Sigh.

----------------
strategyPage has a long report on the virus in North Korea, link

-----------------
update 2: Joy was going to represent the Philippines at a agri conference early next month in Japan, and she is waiting to hear if they will cancel it. I told her to stay home: Not only the danger of getting sick (she can do that here) but the expense if she ends up in quarantine for two weeks.

------------------
relapse of patients seen in China? (Non peer review) PDF

also:



------------------
heh: The President has Walmart on the case (also Target, Walgreen, etc.).

the dirty little secret is that Walmart was a center to get help for people in disasters in  the USA.

Musical interlude of the day

-----

the song is descended from a Scottish ballad: wikipedia link.

the Scottish lyrics here at Scottish traditional songs.

The Wild Mountain Thyme

O the summer time has come
And the trees are sweetly blooming
And wild mountain thyme
Grows around the purple heather.
Will you go, lassie, go?

Chorus
And we'll all go together,
To pull wild mountain thyme,
All around the purple heather.
Will you go, lassie, go?

I will build my love a tower,
By yon clear crystal fountain,
And on it I will pile,
All the flowers of the mountain.
Will you go, lassie, go?

Chorus

I will range through the wilds
And the deep land so dreary
And return with the spoils
To the bower o' my dearie.
Will ye go lassie go ?

Chorus

If my true love she'll not come,
Then I'll surely find another,
To pull wild mountain thyme,
All around the purple heather.
Will you go, lassie, go?

Chorus

---------------
the song I posted was the American version.

your tax dollars at work: One of the concerts giving at the US Library of Congress.

More HERE.

Love in the time of Corona virus

cdc recommendations

shorter version via Phil Airlines. 

1. Frequently wash your hands with soap and running water or alcohol-based cleansers, even if your hands are not visibly dirty. It is recommended to wash your hands:
   a. After coughing or sneezing
   b. Before and after eating
   c. After toilet use
   d.Before and after meal preparation
   e.After handling animals/ animal waste
   f. After handling meat and poultry
   g. If there is visible dirt
2. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.  
3. When coughing and sneezing, move away from people and cover your nose and mouth with tissue or flexed elbow. Throw away used tissues properly.
4. Avoid unprotected contact with farm or wild animals:
5. Ensure that food is well-cooked
6. Maintain a healthy lifestyle to build immunity. Eating nutritious food, take enough rest, exercise regularly, and drink plenty of water.

video instructions:

This version of the Corona virus is no more serious than influenza. (on the other hand, during influenza epidemics, we worked our fingers to the bone trying to cope with patients, and we lost some of them).

 That said, unlike influenza, that perculates slowly through a population (where many have partial immunity) the coronavirus could explode. The result will be a collapse of the medical infrastructure as medical personnel get sick, supplies run out, and a lot of the elderly and vulnerable die.

as to the comparisons to the 1918 epidemic: several differences: This virus hits the elderly and sick the hardest. The 1918 flu hit the younger population who had no partial immunity from a previous infections. Also, the 1918 influenza hit a population already malnourished from the famines of the war, including deliberate blockades of civilians in 1917 and 1918, the loss of farmers in the war, and of course, he collapse of the infrastructure that supplied food to cities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the former Ottoman Empires.

also, many died of secondary pneumonia because there were no antibiotics.

Black humor is common in medicine (laughing at death? Yes we do. It is a way to cope)

: my step son got upset about this, but I have a morbid sense of humor. so here is a shorter film on coping in an epidemic:

China's infiltration of the Philippines

The Inquirer has an editorial about how PLA (China's military) is sending it's members here to work as ordinary workers ("kitchen helper", a job that could be done by a local, but hey who's watching?). And not just one PLA member, but probably a few thousand, and a possible training center for them here to keep up their military skills?

Can you say "fifth column" children.

and that is only the tip of the story.

Let's start with POGOs.

so what are POGOs? on line gambling. Illegal in China, but legal here.

from the Inquirer;

The presence of Pogos has spawned an ever-growing list of economic and social ills—flouting immigration, labor and taxation laws; prostitution, crime, the spike in real estate prices, disrupting the peace and order in residential areas; money laundering—that many see as noncommensurate to the supposed billions earned from these gambling operations banned in China yet officially sanctioned by this government.

so what's the problem? 

But the possibility of a sinister military agenda by a foreign government with hostile intentions in the West Philippine Sea takes the cake. If true, the presence of a Chinese “fifth column’’ poses extreme danger to the country’s national security and should not be taken lightly.

Read the whole thing.

more HERE about China's bid to take over the Philippines.

the "great game" between China and the USA is complicated by "human rights" types who look the other way at Uighar and Rohingye oppression but are anti Duterte, and have only increased his anti American stance.

(and then there are those rumors of suspected CIA fronts that are funding opposition newspapers)? 

The human rights types count every murder as part of the drug war (they are not: A lot of the murders aren't the cops killing criminals: many murders are by criminals, or by druggies killing family members when high, or by politicians offing their rivals, or "pay back" murders ).

according to Strategypage, it is irritation with these "human rights" types that has made Duterte cancel the "visiting forces" agreement with the US military.

but it is precisely this policy that has made the average Filipino safer and has kept Duterte's popularity so high.

For the people most affected by the war on drugs, there is approval. Filipinos feel safer and more confident about their future. The national crime rate is 3.3 percent less than a year ago and is apparently continuing to decline...

Recent surveys have shown fewer Filipinos are victims of crime in general and most attribute this to the anti-drug operations. 

And the "drug war" (5700 killed since 2016) has prevented the Philippines from becoming a narco state like Mexico (where there were 35000 murders last year alone) , and slowed the ability for drug gangs to launder money and send drugs all over the world: distributing Meth and heroin from the "golden triangle" and fentanyl etc. from China.

As to the "POGOs": The overseas gambling that was supposed to benefit the Philippines with jobs. Except they are hiring Chinese citizens while corrupting society (not that the Philippines needs lessons in this). And this is one way they are able to infiltrate military personnel into the Philippines, and of course the POGOs are a front for those wanting to launder money. LINK LINK thanks to weak laws against money laundering here.

Esquire magazine on the "POGOs" in the Philippines.

Sigh.

However, in the provinces, people hate the Chinese, including the part Chinese families who have long run the economy, making it hard for locals to start successful businesses, meaning ten percent of our population work overseas, either as immigrants or as temporary workers.

The Wuhan virus is a worry here (but hey,  last year we had over 1000 die and 200 thousand cases of Dengue)

And complicating matters: right now the hot season is here, meaning elders with high blood pressure will be dying at a higher rate).

the answer is, of course, air conditioners (most in the middle class have them) and fans (which even the poor have now) ... but since we have an electricity shortage (worsened because of low water levels in the hydro electric dams in the hot/dry season i.e. "tag init" of March/April/ May) this means rolling brownouts.

Luckily we have a generator (as do most middle class families).

Bill Clinton famously said about politics: It's the economy, stupid.

Which explains why China's investments are welcome, because the alternative is to go back to the good old days of hunger, hard back breaking work, and poverty.

so if the corona virus epidemic means we have to work from home, we're fine. (except that the rice doesn't plant itself. On the other hand, the wuhan flu is probably less likely to spread outdoors in the sunlight).

so, aside from Dengue Fever, Volcanoes, corruption, a Chinese fifth column, and the hot weather, we now have to worry about dying of Corona virus.

ah: Life in a tropical paradise: it's wonderful (as long as the air conditioner works).

-----------------
update: Manila is in lockdown, but our schools are still open... for now.

Joy has a trade fair there starting tomorrow, but I suspect no one will be in the malls so it may be canceled.

Musical interlude of the day

the world is going bananas over the Wuhan virus, so let's hear it for the Banana lady:


........

Family news

Joy is busy with her business in Bulacan

////interview at a local radio station.
She also was chosen to go to Japan for a business meeting as a representative.

In the meanwhile, Kuya is busy with the rice harvest here: Getting the rice dried and milled.

It is sunny (so the rice is drying well in the sun)

But it is so hot that I didn't go to mass.

Yes there is Wuhan virus here, a few cases (maybe because folks aren't getting tested) but so far they haven't shut down the churches.

How hot was it? Well, I went to take the dogs for their 4pm walk and they came back into the house. I'll try again in an hour.

If not, they'll do their thing in the yard, but they do tend to get rambuncious at night if we don't take them for a walk.

Spread around (the UV) light

When I first worked in hospitals in the 1960s, many wards (especially the delivery room/nursery) had ultraviolet lights to stop the spread of germs to these vulnerable patients.

They sort of disappeared however: I never saw one used again until I came here and they had one in our local hospital.

(note: I did tend to work in small rural hospitals not big ones so this might not be true for all hospitals).

Ultraviolet light kills germs. (bacteria, and viruses and even mosquitoes).

The devil of course is in the details: What wavelenght, which lights work best, how intense should the light be, and the benefit/harm ration to nearby human beings.

WebMD says certain UV lights can stop the airborne influenza virus without harming people and is used to sterilize things, but because it might cause skin cancer, it is not advised to be used in public.

Science daily article from 2018 suggests it should be used more often to stop influenza, and that low dose UV lights work:

Continuous low doses of far ultraviolet C (far-UVC) light can kill airborne flu viruses without harming human tissues, according to a new study at the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC). The findings suggest that use of overhead far-UVC light in hospitals, doctors' offices, schools, airports, airplanes, and other public spaces could provide a powerful check on seasonal influenza epidemics, as well as influenza pandemics.

The WHO says: uh oh; wait a minute.

translation: It might give you a sunburn like irritation, or you might develop cataracts. (But hey, it's better to die of Corona virus than risk getting a very curable skin cancer 30 years from now?)

a lot of the use depends on the dosage, of course. But using it to decontaminate surfaces and rooms and closed spaces in buses etc. is already being done.

the UK Mirror says that China is blasting buses with UV light to decontaminate them.

it could also be used to decontaminate airplanes.

this 2010 article discusses the history of using UV light to stop the spread of germs.

it has a lot of technical information (like discussing air movement and dosage and wavelength). The use of UV light started in 1845, when it was noted sunlight decontaminated test tubes. But it wasn't used clinically until the 1930s, when it was used to stop the spread of measles, and later for control of TB spread.

TB is common here, and is one area where UV works and is used, which explains the presence of UV lights on the ceiling and near the doorways in some areas of our local hospital.

why did it's use stop? It didn't always work (humidity lowered it's efficiency) and there were worries about ozone and other problems with the older type lights. Then of course came antibiotics, so the perceived need was less urgent (one reason hand cleaning went down too).

but the presence of antibiotic resistance has caused many hospitals to reintroduce the lights to disinfect rooms



UV has other uses in medicine: Doctors still use small UV lights/flashlights (or a "wood's Light) to identify fungus infections, or with dye to identify eye scratches or ulcer, etc.

Don't have a Wood's light? Wired notes MacGuyver used his cellphone as a "black light" to read secret writing on a wall, and they discuss how to do it with a LED light or cellphone.

but of course, the dosages is too low to be much help in killing germs.

Traditionally, UV lights are flourescent type lightbulbs. Indeed, most fluorescent lights have a coating so they don't emit UV light.

They have been working on LED lights that emit UV light to stop viruses and antibiotic resistant germs.

I have no idea on the dosages or types of lights that you have around your house that could be used for cleaning your bathroom or kitchen surfaces.

But since ordinary LED lights are made not to emit UV light, you aren't going to be saved by keeping on your lights.

---------------------

Dilbert's podcast mentions

Balaji Srinivasan: Far UV light kills airborne viruses

the technical paper on hospital infection control can be found HERE.

Family news

Kuya is busy at the rice harvest.

Lolo's birthday is this weekend so we were planning to clean up and decorate his grave, but the maid said she has to go to her son's middle school about his graduation, so I don't know if we will do it today or over the weekend.

The Corona virus is not big news here yet: Some OFW have caught it overseas and some domestic helpers were laid off in Hong Kong and Macau and are coming back, presumably to be put into isolation.

Musical Interlude of the day

from the K-Drama Crash landing on you: a Korean drama that was on netflix and on K drama sites here in Asia.

headsup from a commenter on Instapundit discussion