Saturday, June 22, 2019

World policeman no more?

the ending of High Noon shows the sheriff, after fighting the bad guys almost by himself (since the townspeople refused to help him), throws his badge into the ground and leaves town.

So when Trumpieboy refused the advice of the military to kill people to venge himself on Iran's attack of a spy drone (something that could start another war where America would be the one doing the fighting, of course) it sounds like Trumpie is channeling his inner Will Kane... 

Let me explain.

For the last 60 years, the USA has been the world policeman. The leftists lament all those US troops all over the world, but they sort of overlook the alternative.

But the US Voters got tired of being ridiculed and hated for doing this hard job, which is why you got first President Obama and now President Trump. 

President Obama tried his best to make peace, and Iran betrayed the deal.

So now Trumpieboy is in charge, and doxing the bad guys in the Middle East, the establishment US state department, the Military industrial complex, the establishment MSM. and of course, the Mullahs who watch CNN and believe what they hear.

Blocking the straits of Hormuz is the Mullah's "trump card" (pun intended) since they could block the export of Middle Eastern oil to the world and destroy the world's economy. This is not a new gambit: My son in law was there with the US Navy before the Gulf wars when the Mullahs were trying to pull the same trick. 

But things have changed: can you say "Fracking" children?

the US is now a leading exporter of petroleum/natural gas...

Richard Fernandez has an interesting take on what is really going on in the Straits of Hormuz....

The problem is normally posed in terms of U.S. difficulty in keeping it open. ...
But actually closing the Strait would be political, if not national suicide. Most of the oil passing through Hormuz (about 11/17ths) is bound for the Straits of Malacca en route to China, Japan and Korea.
If Tehran actually closed the Straits, by mining it, for example, they would essentially be blockading China....
Interestingly Trump seems willing to let the Iranian threat serve as a goad for international action. "President Donald Trump said Friday that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, “it’s not going to be closed for long,” but he did not elaborate on whether the United States had an obligation to keep open the international shipping gateway, which is critical to the oil industry." (Emphasis mine). With the U.S. nearly a net exporter of oil the pressure is actually on Asia to keep Hormuz open.

translation: The mullahs think that blocking the strait would harm the USA, but it would raise oil prices, which would help the US, (who is now energy independent and exporting oil/natural gas) and also Russia, who exports their petroleum to Europe (and who could make a bundle selling it to China).

Complicating the matter, of course, is China's artificial islands in the West Philippine sea: there are reportedly huge reserves of natural gas under those shoals, which is another reason that China has been trying to take over the region for years. If China would stop pushing around the Philippines and make a deal with a China friendly Duterte, between the natural gas resources there, and the expansion of Chinese influence into the petroleum rich Central Asian countries, China might soon be able to lower their own imports from the middle East.

I don't know much about the Central Asian republics who used to be part of Russia but are now in China's long term plans for a new silk road.

John Bachelor has had a dozen podcasts about this region lately, but I have been too busy to listen to them.


I am also slowly working my way through Austin Bay's book Cocktails from Hell (I am slowly reading it on scribd) which goes into summarizing the complexities of multilateral complicated issues of war and peace in today's world. 

To quote Bill Clinton: It's the economy stupid.



People pushing the "Russia Russia RUSSIA" conspiracy theory forget that Trumpieboy has had business contacts in many countries, and even though many of these are under his son, who runs the company, he is aware of the complexities of how international finance and economics work, and often has personal contacts that are important in international business,  and so he has a different point of view than many in the diplomatic community.

Hence, the use of economic rather than military pressure on rogue regimes.

Now if only the DNC/MSM would notice things are changing: alas, they are stuck in the 1970s, when the leftist students just decided everything the US did was bad, and everything that the communists or their minions did was good (ignoring the Great Leap forward, the Red guard atrocities, the Gulag, etc. etc.).... 

Yes, I am being sarcastic...but with their children taking over the Democratic party, such simplistic ideas are still with us... which is why Joe Biden, not the socialist types who are running for president, is actually more popular among the hoi polloi, who will probably ignore the MSM's hit jobs on him.

But that's another topic for another time.

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