Thursday, February 27, 2020

CDC and Corona virus plans

the USA shut the borders to people from high risk areas (and quarantined citizens in danger) on February 2, and the president got a lot of flack for doing so (even the World Health Organization was saying this was over reaction back then: Guess they were wrong).

NYPost reports Trumpieboy is on it, and says stop playing politics.

And the conspiracy pages are full of nonsense a about the Johns Hopkins drill for a corona virus outbreak that they held a few years ago. EVENT 201 webpage.says there are 200 "epidemic" events each year.

But what this means is that the plans are there: They only have to do some fine tuning of the response to get it done, and according to this report, they are already doing this.

LINK to CDC response so far on corona virus.

For example, screening for fever at airports (which has been done in the past for other illnesses) is being done:


As of February 23, a total of 46,016 air travelers had been screened at the 11 U.S. airports to which all flights from China are being directed. Since February 2, travelers to the United States who have been in China in the preceding 14 days have been limited to U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents and others as outlined in a presidential proclamation. Incoming passengers are screened for fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Any travelers with signs or symptoms of illness receive a more comprehensive public health assessment. As of February 23, 11 travelers were referred to a hospital and tested for infection; one tested positive and was isolated and managed medically. Seventeen travelers were quarantined for 14 days because of travel from Hubei Province, China, an area that was designated as high risk for exposure to COVID-19**; 13 of these 17 have completed their quarantine period.

the huge numbers being screened suggest mild cases might get through the screening, especially since it is influenza season.

There are a lot of diseases out there that kill people but don't get into the headlines, but we see the worry here, because so many of our OFW are caregivers, work on cruise ships, or work as nurses and doctors all over the world.

the CDC article says there are 200 outbreaks of epidemics in recent years:

I didn't know that there are that many, but I remember quite a few: Mainly influenza, but also SARS, and MERS and Ebola. One probably should put Zika in there, along with Dengue fever and that yellow fever epidemic that broke out in Angola and spread to China and used up all the yellow fever vaccine in the world. Since the yellow fever mosquito is present in much of Asia and even in the USA, you can see how this could have been a major problem.

The US Public Health Service has a commission corp that once worked to stop disease from entering ports: The port hospitals were closed by Jimmy Carter, and he cut down the numbers, but these people still work in public health projects (inner city and rural clinics) and on Indian Reservations with the IHS. And since the PHSCC is a paramilitary type organization, you can be called up for emergencies.

For example, when the Mariel Boat lift dumped thousands of Cubans, many elderly and sick, into the USA, some of our people were called up

And even civilian federal physicians are tasked for epidemics; the Dark Winter exercize on a biowarfare outbreak of smallpox was used after 911 when many worried that a similar attack would occur.


But the dirty little secret is that money alone is not the way to solve things: You need expertise and a clear plan that fits in with the reality of the epidemic, or you end up wasting money on ineffective treatment strategies. (the opening chapter on the superflu epidemic in John Ringo's black humor sci fi book The Last Centurion, is alas an accurate pictures of good and bad responses to infectious disease emergencies. Caution: Not PC).

Trumpieboy was much criticized for cutting the public health budget (actually, he proposed a 16 percent cut that has not been done yet, but that hasn't stopped the hysterical political accusations that he is to blame for the epidemic). 

But how much was to cut funding for actual infectious disease, versus doing expensive surveys on stuff like indoor smoking  or how often teenagers eat their veggies.

Even the infectious disease part ignores the reality of where the money is being spent. 

throwing money is not the answer: You have to use it efficiently.

For example, many of these critics didn't notice the cut on the ebola taskforce was because  they wasted a lot of money fighting ebola in west Africa a few years ago: even the NYTimes noted there were major problems and a lot of money wasted on treatment facilities that took too long to build and didn't treat many patients, instead of using local talent and building up the local health care system (as is being done in today's Ebola outbreak in central Africa).

The bad news is that Coronavirus is a lot more infectious than ebola, which requires close contact.

The good news? It's a lot less lethal.


And one doubts that isolation and face masks and washing hands will completely stop the spread of the disease: But it will slow down the spread and lower the numbers of those affected.

as I noted earlier: the treatment is basic nursing care. But if the disease spreads too fast, you end up with the health system collapsing, not to mention the health care workers and family members caring for the sick also getting sick, meaning people won't get that care (who does the shopping and cooking when everyone is sick)?

no one is sure what will happen in places like the Philippines. The UN says we are prepared, but I'm not really up to date about what is going on here. Wikipedia page 

It says a lot about Political correctness that we have had lots of editorials warning against anti Chinese prejudice.


there are arrangements for quarantine of infected OFW's, etc.

 and the bishops have added a prayer for safety at mass, and urged folks not to touch at the kiss of peace at mass, and not to touch the cross or statues etc. when they come to pray. 

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update:
Strategypage has a summary of the coronavirus effect on China. LINK



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