Monday, February 10, 2020

Stories below the fold: Wuhan flu and peace plans

Thai soldier kills a lot of people in a mall.

This was described in our newspapers as an "amok" killing: a normal, quiet man who snaps and goes on a killing streak.

Traditionally they used a machete for this, but guns make such outbursts more deadly, alas. But he stole the guns from his military unit, so gun control didn't help.

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Duterte is so pissed at the US "human rights" activists and their people in the US Congress interfering with local affairs (not to mention CIA fronts suspected of funding his opponants) that he is trying to cancal the US/Phil joint military training agreement.

However, he is being opposed to this, and may lose popularity because he banked on China to help (i.e. send money to build projects), and alas, they screwed him over in many ways.

and right now, China is not exactly popular, because of the Wuhan virus threat that China underestimated, and now 2 or 3 Chinese tourists here in the Philippines have died of it, and at least one OFW in China has died there.

 If the tens of thousands of OFW in China and Hong Kong request to come home, it will affect the economy.

The plan is to house them at military bases in quarantine to prevent the disease from spreading: That would include nearby Ft Magsaysay, which is used for the US/Phil training in the past but right now is being used for drug rehab, but those numbers are down so it is proposed it be used for quarantine.

AlJ has a report on the response of China to the disease.  link2

the UK Mail discusses which countries have limited travel from China has a recent map of countries limiting travel from China, and notes that Saudi is the latest country to close it's borders.




Saudi has millions of foreign workers who often are housed in crowded dormatories, so if the virus gets lose, it could be a major disaster for that country and for the home countries of these workers (Philippines, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc.)
And of course, a lot of Filipinos work in hospitals there and are at risk.

as I noted in an earlier post, the Wuhan virus is probably no more fatal than some strains of influenza, but unlike influenza, it is a "new" virus, meaning that instead of a slow flow of infections over weeks or months, it could theoretically hit a lot of people at the same time, meaning that the health care system would not be able to care for them, and even care of cases by family members might be difficult if everyone in the family is sick at the same time and can't cook/clean/ nurse each other.

And remember: the long incubation period, the fact that the test doesn't pick up early cases (and that many mild cases who might spread the disease aren't sick enough to get tested) means that the number of actual cases are probably underestimated.

or are the actual number of cases being covered up?  Dreher quotes a comment by a physician who relates stories from his wife's Chinese family, and I've read similar comments on other sites that suggest things are worse than reported.
individual blog posts on Weibo and Globalvoices suggest a similar problem with under reporting.



Sigh
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AlJ has an article about AlSadr's shennanigans in Iraq.
His father was a holy man that Saddam killed, but the son  is a power hungry demagogue and a pro Iranian stooge, sort of a stalking horse for Iran to take over Iraq.

The article tells the back story of Soliemani and what he was doing in Iraq when the US killed him: trying to put down the anti corruption demonstrators in Iraq who refused to be be taken over by Sadr's thugs.
As the violence against them escalated, so did their chants against Iran, which many blamed for the repeated brutal crackdowns. General Qassim Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, travelled multiple times to Baghdad to direct the security response. As the protesters pressed for the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, the Iranians doubled-down on him.
the protesters want outsiders to leave them alone (i.e. both the US and Iran) and then to remove corrupt politicians who are stealing everything in sight instead of using the money to actually rebuild the country.

StrategyPage on Iran's terrorist outreach, and the economic problems from sancations, and notes how Soleimani was leader of the radicals that are stopping that country from reforms.


One senior IRGC general, Qassem Soleimani, was a major proponent of more terror, both inside and outside Iran. While many of the religious leaders who ruled Iran opposed Soleimani and the other radical IRGC generals for demanding more violence, the clerics also needed the IRGC to protect the government from growing public protests...

The death of Soleimani was a relief as he was the most powerful, and influential of the IRGC radicals. Now the IRGC radicals, especially Quds Force commanders, fear more personal attacks on them by the Americans. The government has always resisted the more radical ideas by the IRGC, like carrying out major terror attacks in the United States. The religious leaders, or at least most of them, know this would lead to war with the Americans, a war that would do great damage to Iran and probably mean the end of the religious dictatorship. The IRGC radicals are less impressed by such logical thinking and believe in miracles.

and then there is the mess in Syria, which is now between Turkey and Syria and the Arabs and the Persians and the Kurds and whoever.

The area has been fighting each other for 5000 years, so don't expect peace to break out soon. Syria is a mess, and now the US is out of it, is out of the headlines too.

Trump is trying to rewrite the story however.


But the press insists: don't expect Trumpieboy's peace plan to work: the Democrats oppose it, as do the usual suspects.

But then you read that Egypt, the Saudis and Qatar support it. Huh? 


it seems to be a "carrot and stick" approach: and emphasizes trade and economic improvement rather than kumbaya peace.

And the Arabs/Persians/Levant/ Egypt haven't just made war against each other for 5000 years, they also have been trading with each other for about 5000 years.

one thing I wonder: If the Wuhan flu hits the Arabs etc. hard, will it mean they will seek Israeli help for their people? And of course Israel will give it to them, and not be thanked for the help.

Or will they continue to push the conspiracy theory that Israel and the US was behind the outbreak (a disinformation campaign pushed by some in the Chinese government to cover up their slow response to the virus outbreak and distract their own people from rebelling against Xi).
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