One problem with reading covid data is the question of how many have died in the epidemic.
And the latest wave, which is running through Asia is more confusing, since the question is: Do you count those who died from covid or with covid?
And often the reporting is vague.
I use this article from a Japanese paper to show the problem.
Alarm bells are sounding in Japan over a sudden sharp increase in the pace of deaths linked to COVID-19. The number of COVID-19 fatalities exceeded 50,000 on Dec. 1 after new deaths climbed by 10,000 every three or four months. But in a little over a month, the figure is closing in on 60,000
This sounds horrible, until you realize they are talking about total deaths over a three year period and the total population of Japan is 125 million.
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| The Asahi Shimbun |
So there are a lot of cases out there, but the data that we need to know, i.e. how many are actually sick and dying this week, isn't there.
There has been a huge increase in the nunber of cases over the last 60 days and not just in Japan.
Here is the worldmeter site for various countries in the world:
Number of active cases to see how many are sick.
Japan: active cases 8.9 million
USA: Active cases 2 million
France active cases 500 thousand
South Korea 1 million active cases
Philippines 12 000 active cases
A lot of this data is biased due to statistical diffeences. Countries that test all the time have huge numbers, because the mild cases are counted, whereas in other countries a lot of people who aren't that sick don't bother to get tested.
For example, there is a cold/flu that made everyone in our compound sick (about a dozen family and employees), but it only lasted 3 days so no problem and no one got tested. But we did test Ruby's visiting roommate who stayed sick for four days, and she tested negative. So we presume none of us had covid.
Even the death numbers might not be accurate because a lot of the deaths are with covid, not from covid.
The original article from asahi.com clarifies who is dying:
The vast majority of deaths involved senior citizens. In cases where the ages of the deceased are known, about 68 percent of patients were 80 or older during the period between September 2020 and December 2022, according to health ministry statistics. Another 20 percent were in their 70s. For many patients advanced in years and already frail or with underlying health issues, catching the coronavirus was the last straw
italics mine.
Yes. This is what we doc see in years when we have influenza/pneumonia going around.
And alas it is also influenza season, so add those sick folks to the health crisis that is putting a strain on hospitals...
And remember: some people who die of old age at home really died of covid so the real numbers of covid related deaths might be higher in many countries.
The problem is that the huge upsurge means lack of hospital beds, and a shortage of antibiotics and fever lowering medicines, due to the supply chain problems.
Sigh.
And it is worse in China, who seems more upset that some countries are testing travelers from there or noting that they are underreporting actual cases and actual deaths (which they see as a type of criticism) thatn with the actual public health problem.
so the next time you read articles that China is under reporting Covid deaths, just shrug and say of course they are. And the US/Japan/Europe are probably over counting deaths by including the elderly and in frail health where any infection would cause them to die.
so what is going on in China?
This video from Dr. C is a few days old but discusses the Chinese approach to the new covid epidemic.
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