Friday, November 13, 2020
typhoon report 2
Thursday, November 12, 2020
typhoon report
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
The bad news: Another typhoon. The Good news? a vaccine is coming
Another day, another typhoon. LINK
we are signal one, and the typhoon is expected to hit way south of here, meaning we will be hit mainly with rain...unless of course it turns north.
another report here.(ManilaBulletin)
it should hit us early Thursday so the news is subject to change.
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and in other news, as expected a covid vaccine will soon be available: of course, it's just a coincidence that the announcement was released shortly after the election.... Silly me, just because Pfizer lied that they were not part of the operation warp speed (they were) doesn't mean they might delay the release to please their political allies.
the bad news? the Pfizer vaccine requires refrigeration, so that is a problem for poorer tropical countries.
But of course, this won't be the only vaccine that will be quickly available: not just from the USA but from other countries.
The press is all pushing Biden won, and here it is assumed to be true.
But there are lots of stuff being questioned including why the MSM declared victory before the counting was finished, or when the numbers were too close to call. Instapundit has a lot of links on their site (Libertarian site). but the real news is that Real Clear politics has an article declaring the election should not have been declared so early. LINK
Under the contentious circumstances of this election, the traditional media’s decision to declare a victor before the official process had run its course has diminished the confidence of Trump voters in the announced result. Even if the declaration of a Biden victory is found to be accurate, the call was premature, and it will make the effort to unify our nation far more difficult.
sounds about right. And the censorship of stories questioning the accuracy of these stories are being censored by the MSM and the big social media.
Me? I'm just busy reading books since the internet is not available during the day.With the rain, often I don't get my afternoon walk with the dogs, so am using Lolo's exercize bike.
Monday, November 09, 2020
learning from Hello Garci
Saturday, November 07, 2020
Volcano factoid of the day
Friday, November 06, 2020
Overseas citizens and military are disinfranchised, and why I don't rely on the internet
I just got an email from Democrats Abroad in Manila to tell me to insist that they count our ballots.
Actually I haven't voted since moving here: Partly because my last voting address was Oklahoma and the Republicans there would overwhelm my little vote, and partly because I am not up to date to vote on local candidates there, but mainly because the mail is so slow that even if I send it in early, it might arrive late.
My latest mail to the USA took 3 weeks to get there, but the latest letter from the US to me was posted in late August. But even in good times, (pre covid) it took 2 to 3 weeks for "snail mail" to arrive. Much of the delay if from Manila to our town, which takes 7 to ten days on average.
But the worse delay was a pension check mailed in February that arrived damaged and unreadable in late July.
So the DemocratsAbroad. are correct in worrying that ex pats (overseas Americans) and others (especially military votes) will not be counted.
No link, but I sort of remember in 2000, when they were arguing about "hanging chads" in Florida, that at the same time lots of military ballots were never counted because they arrived too late.
The Military Times has a similar worry. LINK and the numbers are significant if the election is close:
Overall in 2016, there were 252,574 military absentee ballots counted by all the states; and 382,896 absentee ballots from U.S. citizens overseas, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. As everyone has seen, the margins of votes in this election are changing rapidly as more votes are counted. Military and overseas citizens' votes will be counted by election officials, but the fact that some states have previously carved out later deadlines to allow for more transit times for these ballots could make a difference.
that is one of the reasons for allowing counting of late ballots.
of course, when the law allows things like this, you have to remember it also allows people to discover ballot boxes in the back room: this is especially important when they don't require postmarks to be validated, or when the late ballots hint of fraud (i.e. too high a count for one side, or when more people voted than are registered, or when they find a ballot or two registered to a dead person, which makes one wonder how many fraudulent ballots will be overlooked.
so it looks like it will be another fight to see who wins. Nothing new here, alas, but the important news is that there haven't been riots: it looks like people are still trusting the constitution to play out according to law.
The best quip about all of this is from Dilbert:
Episode 1176 Scott Adams: Even the Looters Don’t Know What to do Now.
My son swears by NPR which tells him only Trump is worried about fraud. My take? I don't have one. But I don't especially trust NPR or most of the MSM here: the rule is that if they don't get the facts correct about things you know about, don't trust them about things you don't know about. And the distortion about the Philippines news and about the covid epidemic is there, although it's hard to tell if the distortions are from opinion pieces or regular news (they need to lable the difference, since it's hard to tell the difference when you get the news on line).
I get most of my news on line. And our internet problems mean I haven't been able to keep up with the deluge of propaganda from both sides. So if I haven't written about the election, it is because I have a life, and typhoons and epidemics and worry if the rice crop will survive and get harvested sort of seem more important right now.
I just don't trust the MSM, and the censorship of the conservative voices by social media to eliminate the right wing propaganda and fake news means it's hard to find the reasonable opinions from the other side.
I suspect that there will be a breakup of the social media no matter who wins, similar to the breakup of AT&T or IBM in the past, The monopoly laws go back to Teddy Roosevelt, so don't blame Trumpieboy (or Biden) when this happens.
Nor is the fight between government and huge internet based monopolies limited to the USA: The UKGuardian has an article about Jack Ma vs Xi.
well, anyway, I haven't been able to follow a lot of the kerfuffle in the US elections for the last six weeks.
Our internet has been going off and on during the day (the phone company is upgrading their cable to carry the traffic from all the kids at home using the internet to take classes, so often the internet doesn't work while they are working on the line). So the only time I know I can get on line is early in the morning, before 8 am.
To complicate matter we have had heavy rain and two nearby typhoons and brownouts.
But the main reason is that Joy is using my computer. Sometimes it is because the secretary (part time) is using it to update the books and data, and other times Joy uses my newer computer in order to do her zoom business conferences. But not just during the day: because the internet is off much of the time during the day, Joy is up late at night using my computer to do her email and business stuff late at night when the internet is working.
it is a real problem for Joy's business: Often the internet is out when she is on conference calls, so she has to link to the internet via her phone, which is expensive and slow.
So yesterday, she signed up for Huawei internet link. Yes, it will cost a bit, but cheaper and faster for business, (G5 link? I have no idea). She has the modem in her room, but it reaches to the dining room for the rest of us to connect if we wish.
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update: most of the local English papers here in the Philippines (run by the oligarchy that loves the Democrats) are comparing the confusion of the USA election to Marcos trying to stop the counting of legal ballots against him. But they sort of over look that many of the mail in ballots coming in late resemble the "Hello Garci" scandal, where a certain lovely president was recorded talking to a local bigshot asking him to make sure the ballots were being done properly, which most folks here interpreted as telling him to bring out the pre filled out ballots from the back room.
That scandal was one reason the Philippines paid a lot of money to get electronic voting machines.
a lot of what is happening, from the "BLM" and "antifa" demonstrations to the Democratic DA's who refuse to prosecute rioters, to the mail in ballot scheme, are all seen by Trump and his followers as a conspiracy (many of Trump's backers are Democrats who are upset that the extreme left took over their party).
But one does see the censorship of social media against the "deplorables", and the MSM is not very curious about checking on possible cheating, so one suspects the end result will be that the most productive and hard working folks in the USA will essentially be disenfranchised again by corrupt politicians of both parties who like the status quo where they can get rich. (another story rarely reported outside of the small right wing media which has since been banished from Youtube and facebook and twitter).
Not much I can do about any of this of course: When I pray, I only get the small quiet feeling that this is a chastisement for the USA and ultimately for the world.
As for us, a Biden presidency would mean letting China get away with their shennanigans stealing our fish and our petroleum reserves. StrategyPage has a longish essay on what is going on here LINK
Thursday, November 05, 2020
Cemetary time
In the USA, they celebrate Haloween, in Mexico the celebrate the day of the dead, but here they have Undas, where the family visits the graves of their loved ones, cleans up and decorates the grave, and then stays awhile and has a picnic.
Not this year, however...Here the mayor explains why the cemeteries are closed for Undas,
.Kuya harvested rice at the farm yesterday, and may finish drying it today if the sunshine continues. There is alas another typhoon due to hit the Philippines but this one is aiming at the far north, so unless it is large, we shouldn't be bothered with heavy rain.
About 20 typhoons and storms annually batter the Philippines, and the Southeast Asian archipelago is seismically active, with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.
and not just earthquakes, volcanoes and typhoons: Don't forget Dengue fever. There seems to be fewer cases this year, probably because everyone stayed inside due to covid.
A year after the national dengue epidemic was declared, she said reported dengue cases have dropped from 430,282 in 2019 to 59,675 in 2020... dengue deaths have also significantly dropped from 1,612 deaths in 2019 to 231 in 2020.
compare this to covid:
the ministry said total confirmed cases had increased to 388,137, while deaths had reached 7,367. The Philippines has the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Southeast Asia behind Indonesia.
in the meanwhile, the country is making plans to use a vaccine as soon as it is available: Duterte perfers the Russian Sputnik vaccine or the US Moderna vaccine. link2
The US moderna vaccine should have been released in September, but has been held up because of Politics, which seems crazier than usual in the USA this year. Yup. let people die because Trump. And of course the anti vaxers would let thousands die rather than risk a dozen deaths from side effects.
and this doesn't count the deaths from malnutrition and because people aren't getting treatable diseases treated because they are afraid of going to the hospital.
Sigh.
Monday, November 02, 2020
good news the typhoon missed us
Sunday, November 01, 2020
Remembering our family in heaven
the usual Undas celebration (for all Saints day/day to remember the dead) is forbidden due to the virus, with the gates locked and armed police guarding the entrances to the various older (ungated) and newer (gated) areas. Even the funeral for our next door neighbor will have to wait five days until they allow the cemeteries to reopen.
Of course, with the news warning us that a supertyphoon is due to hit Luzon tonite, we are staying home. But so far this morning it is cloudy and the atmosphere is heavy, but no rain or wind yet...the calm before the storm.
waiting for the wind
Saturday, October 31, 2020
family news
Tell the experts: Medicine is still an Art
In the evening, the family gathers in my room (I have the large TV) to watch movies. We have several movie channels (HBO, Fox movies) but too often they seem to be violent and nihilisitic, or else superhero nonsense, so instead I cast films from my computer, either from K drama sites or from Youtube, where you can actually watch a story with a plot and normal people.
Well, anyway, Joy loves "Hallmark" type movies, so last night we watch one of the Jean Oakes sagas, this one about a lady doctor.
Big mistake: I rarely watch medical oriented shows, since they tend to be either so realistic that they bring back hard cases I treated, or more commonly ,they get medicine so wrong that I curse and shout medical advise at the screen.
This film was one of the latter: There is an epidemic in town, and the attractive lady doc looks down the throat of a sick child and immediately diagnoses Cholera.
Cholera? well maybe they left the part out about diagnosing it from the odor on entering the room and she was checking for dehydration, but the medical part went down hill from there: all those cholera patients being treated without her getting her fancy dress dirty. (and falling in love with a handsome cowboy of course). Yecch.
Poor Joy: she was quite startled after I cheered the town folks when they burnt down the orphanage which was the locus of the epidemic (although I suspect it was the orphanage outhouse contaminating the town water supply that caused the problem)...and after the film, I put this up to show her what was wrong with the G rated movie:
Here is Dr Claire Frazer from Outlander confronting a similar epidemic on a British navy ship (actually the epidemic was typhoid, not cholera but you get the idea: Neither disease is pleasant to treat if you are a delicate lady trying to keep your dress attractive), and is more realistic.
Yup. I've seen that too: Indeed, the first lecture that we medical students were given was about not making medicine a way to flee life, because being human is an important part of the art of medicine.
In “Pain Has an Element of Blank,” poet Emily Dickinson shows us the problem posed by the constant intrusion of the body, in its most compelling form: pain. Pain is a direct experience that, according to Dickinson, seems to fill the present; nothing interposes itself between the poet and her pain.
Pain has an element of blank;
It cannot recollect
When it began, or if there were
A day when it was not.
It has no future but itself,
Its infinite realms contain
Its past, enlightened to perceive
New periods of pain.~
something to remember the next time you read that doctors prescribe too much pain medicine for their patients...
and don't forget: A lot of sickness is from grief, anxiety and the sorrows of life. Listening is a big part of treating that too:
as Hopkings wrote:
O the mind, mind has mountains; cliffs of fall
Frightful, sheer, no-man-fathomed. Hold them cheap
May who ne'er hung there.
Sunday, October 25, 2020
Anti vax hits the Philippines
There was a huge social media outburst here in August claiming 5 people died of covid vaccine in Tarlac.
The problem? It wasn't true. Not only wasn't it true, but the vaccine hadn't been used yet anywhere in the Philippines.
A more recent report (Oct 5) from AFP in the Japanese Times notes that not only is this disinformation about a vaccine that hasn't been used, but that the anti vax movement here in the Philippines is killing children.
The background of the problem? The Dengue vaccine scandal where an unproven vaccine caused several deaths in children.
The problem? The children were not properly screened, and should never have received the vaccine.
And the outrage was made worse because a lot of folks think corruption might have allowed an unsafe vaccine be used, and that the western drug company was using the Philippine people as a guinea pig.
but it wasn't the vaccine that killed a lot of kids: It was the fact that the well publicized "scandal" scared a lot of parents, so they didn't get their kids vaccinated against anything.
Childhood immunization rates have plummeted in the country — from 87 percent in 2014 to 68 percent — resulting in a measles epidemic and the re-emergence of polio last year. A highly politicized campaign that led to the withdrawal of dengue vaccine Dengvaxia in 2017 is widely seen as one of the main drivers of the fall.
as a result, as the UK Guardian reported, over 70 childen died from measles.
(Ironically that Dengue vaccine is 76% effective, and the vaccine has since been approved for use in other countries.).
Fast forward to Covid, where the opposition to Trump, not scientific data, seems to be fueling anti covid vaccine hysteria in the USA...
But part of the hysteria is also from poor coverage by the press, but especially from short quotes on social media. These quotes are usually taken out of context, or they emphasize distrust if recommendations change, or where recommendations are based on different circumstances (e.g. masks where nuanced discussions about different types of masks, who should or should not use them, or where they should be used is often lacking).
And then there are headlines that emphasize one fact, whereas if you read the entire article, you find that the headline is false.
Clickbate anyone?
For example the death from the British vaccine trial was given a lot of publicity, but how many knew that the guy who died received the placebo, not the vaccine?
Alas, similar anti vax stuff is all over the internet, in both right and left wing fringe blogs and social media.
This is not reality, but social contagion similar to the phenomenum described in the book
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (which was) an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, (1841) which describes the psychological basis of everything from the witch trials to the crusades to the tulip craze to why people believe in ghosts to economic fads that resulted in major economic problems when that bubble burst.
That was 1841, but now with Twitter and Facebook etc. it is easier for rumors to spread, so the paranoid delusions often spread quickly and are hard to debunk.
In the Philippines, according to the AFP article, the anti vax disinformation is spread mainly via Facebook.
I believe this, because everyone here, even the lower middle class and even our farmers, have access to a smart phone or an internet cafe, and the younger generation live on Facebook and other social media sites.
This anti vax opposition thrives on fear, and there is a lot of fear of the virus here in the Philippines.
add to that a distrust of the government, made worse by an anti Duterte social media among the elite and students...Although outside of this bubble, ordinary folks trust Duterte (80%) on getting the vaccine, the trust of "experts" might be lower....
and ordinary folks are being overwhelmed by what they read on the social media.
What is usually lacking is common sense, knowledge of the nuances of how vaccines work (including their side effects and limitations) and especially, the cost benefit ratio: that a dozen people suffering from side effects is better than tens of thousands sick or dead from the actual disease.
Sigh.
the nuanced discussion of this is on medical sites, of course, (medical discussions recognize the cost benefit ratio and the shortcomings of any vaccine but also recognizes the huge benefits from such vaccines. These sites also include information on who should should get the vaccine, who should not, and what is a side effect and what is not related to the vaccine).
here's an example of what we docs learn: notice it's 2 hours long and full of complicated data.
So how many people will watch the long lecture, let alone understand it.
In contrast, a short tweet or facebook post with paranoid anger behind it will be read by many and alas believed.
To make things worse: much of this anti vax fad is associated with the idea that natural living is better, and all medicines are bad. Use an herb, not a medicine that might cure you. Natural methods are better (really? How could anyone believe that here, when people die of diseases easily treated by western medicine?)
So (to paraphrase Monty Python): What good has vaccinations done for us anyway?
but how can calm reasoning compete with the paranoid fringe theories out there: Again from the AFP article:
"I trust vaccines 100 percent,” said Jett Bucho, from a poor neighborhood of San Jose del Monte, after her one-year-old daughter was immunized against polio. But the 26-year-old said online conspiracy theories that a coronavirus vaccine could be used to implant chips and control humans had planted a seed of doubt in her mind. “On Facebook, if you keep scrolling, you see this,” she said. “It’s scary.”
Princess Mononoke background story
I am reading the classic (albeit now outdated) textbook the Chrysanthemum and the sword, written by Ruth Benedict in 1944 to explain to Americans that their Japanese enemies didn't see things or think the same as Americans, and that they needed to understand the culture. Book can be downloaded from internet archive.
But yesterday, Kuya mentioned some of the Japanese looked more Caucasian than Asian, and I pointed out that it isn't caucasian but Ainu and similar indigenous peoples who in the distant past may have intermarried...
Japan is seen as a monolithic culture by the west, but actually their ancestry is a bit complicated.
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Chicken trivia
we used to farm broiler chickens, until a typhoon flattened the chicken houses and we decided the profit we made wasn't enough to rebuild (our local chicken prices were low thanks to imports from Viet Nam... globalization anyone?)
Well, anyway, the story of how chickens took over the world as a cheap protein source is fascinating:
A charismatic man has a stunning energy, is always in the spotlight. Leader, unquestioned authority, charming handsome - all this Fire Rooster.
The problem? Chickens cross breed, so in many areas, thanks to free range chickens in villages, there are few pure bred red junglefowl out there.
Curiously, one of the few remaining populations of pure red junglefowl, as reported in Audubon, is found in Georgia. About 900 junglefowl roam the streets of the town of Fitzgerald....In the 1960s, wildlife managers released the junglefowl as part of an effort to establish populations of non-native gamebirds for hunting purposes.The junglefowl never established in wild habitats, but they did colonize the Fitzgerald’s parks and backyards, where many local residents consider them a nuisance.
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in a somewhat related item:
Before there was Green acres, there was the Egg and I: about a city gal whose husband fell in love with country living.
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Secret churches
Virtueonline links to an article about the newest version of Christianity in China that has revived the house churches in rural areas: Calvinism originating in Indonesia. As the rural Pentecostal house churches lose the educated young because they are migrating to cities, they want a more substantial church i.e. more emphasis on intellectual basis instead of mere emotion.
I wonder if it is because the rule oriented Calvinism has rules of conduct similar to Confucian ethics, but then I don't know enough about the subject to know if this is true.
the article also notes the persecution of Christians and the destruction of churches in China.
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I don't know if anyone outside the religious right notices the problem of closing churches. No, worshipping on line or watching TV is not the same.
Yes, virus. But when the public health authorities said hey, BLM demostrations were fine, one does wonder why pastors in the USA didn't say: well if they can gather outside during the day to demonstrate, well, we can imitate them by having worship services outside.
Here, a couple months ago I posted about a priest in Manila saying mass on the back of a pickup truck in the poor areas of Manila.
and our churches have reopened, although elders are not allowed inside (we have to stand outside and keep our distance). Which means as soon as the hot season stops I might actually try to go back to church.
And in Africa, sometimes the priest would say mass under a tree in isolated villages.
So anyway, Father Z links to an article about the Irish sneaking out to pray at the mass rocks, where the Irish gathered to pray and have mass said during that country's persecution.
Alas,. Ireland's bishops pretty well destroyed their church over the last 30 years, so this seems to be mainly a lay effort.
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
here comes the storm
Monday, October 19, 2020
Stories not covered in the media:
Michael Yon, whose reports on Hong Kong told the inside story of their protests, has now gone to report the antifa "peaceful protests" aka riots.
This dispatch points to one of the biggest problems no one seems to be reporting on: That the homeless problem is due to drugs. and it resembles the revenge of China for the Opium wars.
and during the pandemic, overdoses and suicides (which often are in those who have abuse problems) have skyrocketed.
Of course, if someone tries to do something about it, like Duterte is trying to do here, the "human rights" types will protest, because the lives destroyed by drugs and the people killed by druggies robbing them (as several older folks in our town were killed), well they don't care.
I remember when things changed: Before the Beatles popularized drug taking, such things were not normalized in society. Then suddenly those of us who refused to go along with taking drugs were ridiculed and marginalized.
So yes, go mourn John Lennon. But remember: The guy who killed him scrambled his brains into psychotic delusions due to drug taking. In the east, this is known as Karma...
and the question no one is asking: Where the H### are the churches on this issue? Afraid to preach against drug taking because they might lose their congregations?
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Joe Biden is being brought low by his kids. But hey, Twitter and Facebook etc. are trying to censor that story.
But the question no one is asking:
A lot of this is "legal" since giving money to a son/spouse/family member for political influence is not considered bribery. Ditto for family members who get lucrative business deals. But there are a lot of politicians in Washington who have become rich and no one wants to talk about it.
Which is why the well known shenanigans of Trumpieboy before he became president are shrugged off by the deplorables:
As my husband would say: They're all crooks.
and we know lots about Trumpieboy's business deals, (lots of "best sellers" full of these claims are out there) but not how other politicians became millionaires while serving in congress.
So where are the reporters in all of this? Well, given the death of Daphne Caruana, and the lack of interest in things like the Panama papers etc., you can see why these things are not covered very well in the press.
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I ran across this photo on Powerline blog.
what hit me was not the contrast between the photos, but that there are crowds at airports where Trumpieboy has landed. LINK LINK2 LINK3 LINK4
apparently he is making a lot of stops at small airports to campaign, and by calling these gathering "peaceful protests" he can point out that Antifa, feminists, BLM etc. protests are going on all the time without much outcry about the virus spread, implying that if you condemn one gathering you have to do the same for the other side.
This bring in mind another President hated by the establishment who did the same thing: Give'm hell Harry's whistle stop campaign, where Truman crossed the country on a train and gave speeches.
Whistle-Stop Campaign July - October 1948
THE TRAIN CAMPAIGN PROVED TO BE AN UNEXPECTED SUCCESS. During the tour, a new relaxed and confident Harry Truman was presented to the people — a candidate who spoke their language and understood their needs...
For his part, Truman relentlessly accused the "do-nothing" Republican Congress of failing to meet the needs of the American people, a tirade that served him well with the common voter.
" Give 'em hell, Harry " became a battle-cry for the hard-fought, uphill battle of the campaign.



